2025
Week 15 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 18–16; their low point was 40% at Q4 0:47. The game turned for good at Q4 0:42: S.Darnold pass deep left to R.Shaheed to IND 46 for 17 yards (J.Edwards) (47% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:22, 29 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:22SEAJ.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD55% → 84%
- 2Q4 0:52INDB.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD34% → 61%
- 3Q4 0:28SEAS.Darnold pass short left to R.Shaheed ran ob at IND 38 for 8 yards (J.Edwards).53% → 65%
- 4Q4 5:30SEAS.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at IND 32 for 39 yards (C.Bynum).63% → 75%
- 5Q4 2:30SEAJ.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD64% → 75%
- ★Q4 0:42SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to R.Shaheed to IND 46 for 17 yards (J.Edwards).turning point47% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Pittman led the Colts at +2.5 EPA (3 catches for 26). J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +6.2 EPA (7 catches for 113).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Rivers100% | 18/27 | 120 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor85% | 25 | 83% | 87 | -1.6 | |
| A.Abdullah23% | 4 | 13% | 15 | -0.4 | |
| P.Rivers100% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Warren82% | 6 | 23% | 3 | 19 | -3.4 | |
| A.Abdullah23% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 32 | -0.2 | |
| M.Pittman93% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 26 | +2.5 | |
| J.Downs72% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 13 | 1 | -0.2 |
| J.Taylor85% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 14 | -1.1 | |
| A.Pierce100% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | +1.7 |
Defense L.Latu 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 3/3 FG (long 60)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 22/36 | 271 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III42% | 9 | 41% | 17 | -5.2 | |
| Z.Charbonnet55% | 8 | 36% | 31 | -0.2 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 4 | 18% | 5 | -0.6 | |
| R.Shaheed68% | 1 | 5% | -3 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba92% | 9 | 27% | 7 | 113 | +6.2 | |
| C.Kupp75% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 46 | -0.2 | |
| R.Shaheed68% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 74 | +1.5 | |
| A.Barner83% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 27 | +1.7 | |
| E.Saubert37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| K.III42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 | |
| B.Russell8% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| Z.Charbonnet55% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
Defense C.Bryant 1 INT, N.Emmanwori 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 6/6 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Colts give up 168 yards a game to wide receivers (31st), against a league average of 140. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 168 (4th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Seahawks' run game is 21st in EPA per carry (-0.06). Colts allow -0.09 (8th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Seahawks average +0.04 EPA per play (10th). Colts allow +0.00 (16th). League average is +0.01.
The Seahawks lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | IND 16 at SEA 18 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | SEA 28 at IND 16 |
| 2017 · Wk 4 | IND 18 at SEA 46 |
| 2013 · Wk 5 | SEA 28 at IND 34 |
| 2009 · Wk 4 | SEA 17 at IND 34 |
2025 records
| Colts | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 14–3 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 6–3 | 6–2 |
| Away | 2–6 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.