2025
Week 15 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Packers offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 34–26 from as low as 12% (Q3 13:03, down 23–14). The Packers had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 11:02: J.Love pass incomplete short left to J.Jacobs (50% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 0:06, 16 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:06DENB.Nix pass deep left to T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.50% → 66%
- 2Q4 9:03DENB.Nix pass deep left to C.Sutton ran ob at GB 15 for 26 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The…58% → 73%
- 3Q4 12:26GBJ.Love pass deep right to M.Golden to DEN 18 for 27 yards (J.McMillian).41% → 56%
- 4Q2 8:26DENB.Nix pass short left to M.Bandy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 43%
- 5Q2 4:35GBJ.Love pass short right to J.Jacobs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-Z.Tom was injured during the play.66% → 78%
- ★Q4 11:02GBJ.Love pass incomplete short left to J.Jacobs.turning point50% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +4.8 EPA (24 of 40 for 276). B.Nix led the Broncos at +20.3 EPA (23 of 34 for 302).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 24/40 | 276 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs55% | 12 | 60% | 73 | 1 | -1.7 |
| J.Love100% | 3 | 15% | 29 | +5.3 | |
| C.Brooks26% | 2 | 10% | 10 | -0.3 | |
| E.Wilson20% | 2 | 10% | 3 | -0.9 | |
| B.Melton | 1 | 5% | 0 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Musgrave52% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 52 | +3.0 | |
| J.Reed65% | 6 | 17% | 5 | 55 | +2.8 | |
| C.Watson41% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 29 | -2.0 | |
| J.FitzPatrick70% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 18 | -0.7 | |
| M.Golden35% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 55 | +4.1 | |
| J.Jacobs55% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 19 | 1 | +3.2 |
| R.Doubs76% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 36 | +0.8 | |
| D.Wicks42% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -3.6 | |
| C.Brooks26% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -0.2 | |
| B.Melton | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.McManus 4/4 FG (long 53)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 23/34 | 302 | 4 | +20.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey68% | 19 | 61% | 65 | 1 | -8.4 |
| B.Nix100% | 7 | 23% | 10 | -0.3 | |
| J.McLaughlin13% | 2 | 6% | 4 | -1.6 | |
| A.Prentice25% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -1.5 | |
| M.Jr.31% | 1 | 3% | 8 | +0.2 | |
| T.Franklin50% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton88% | 10 | 31% | 7 | 113 | 1 | +8.3 |
| M.Jr.31% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 29 | -1.8 | |
| T.Franklin50% | 6 | 19% | 6 | 85 | 1 | +9.1 |
| L.Humphrey68% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 42 | 1 | +5.7 |
| E.Engram28% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 12 | -0.9 | |
| M.Bandy3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 20 | 1 | +3.2 |
| T.Badie10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -1.4 | |
| R.Harvey68% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense P.II 1 INT, R.Moss 1 INT, D.Tillman 1 sack, J.Elliss 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Broncos allow -0.11 (7th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Packers send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Broncos give up 21 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Packers' running backs produce 27 (20th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Packers create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (3rd). Broncos give them up at 7% (1st).
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999. The Broncos have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | GB 26 at DEN 34 |
| 2023 · Wk 7 | GB 17 at DEN 19 |
| 2019 · Wk 3 | DEN 16 at GB 27 |
| 2015 · Wk 8 | GB 10 at DEN 29 |
| 2011 · Wk 4 | DEN 23 at GB 49 |
2025 records
| Packers | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 5–3 | 8–1 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.