2025
Week 15 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 48–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 85%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 10:22, 5 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:22JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to B.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.91% → 96%
- 2Q1 14:18JAXT.Etienne left guard to JAX 43 for 8 yards (J.Sherwood).9% → 14%
- 3Q1 14:56JAXT.Lawrence pass short left to Q.Morris to JAX 35 for 7 yards (T.Adams).86% → 91%
- 4Q1 13:29JAXT.Lawrence pass short left to J.Meyers to NYJ 42 for 15 yards (M.Moore).85% → 89%
- 5Q1 11:36JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to J.Meyers to NYJ 11 for 10 yards (M.Moore).8% → 11%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
I.Williams led the Jets at +5.3 EPA (6 catches for 53). T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +29.1 EPA (20 of 32 for 330).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Cook100% | 22/33 | 176 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall54% | 12 | 38% | 23 | -6.5 | |
| I.Davis38% | 9 | 28% | 58 | 1 | +4.0 |
| B.Cook100% | 6 | 19% | 39 | +0.1 | |
| K.Herbert7% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -0.5 | |
| A.Beck16% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +1.3 | |
| J.III74% | 1 | 3% | 4 | -0.2 | |
| A.Mitchell79% | 1 | 3% | -4 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Mitchell79% | 9 | 28% | 6 | 58 | 1 | +3.1 |
| I.Williams60% | 7 | 22% | 6 | 53 | +5.3 | |
| J.III74% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 25 | +0.2 | |
| A.Lazard | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -6.6 | |
| J.Ruckert74% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 13 | 0.0 | |
| B.Hall54% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 14 | +0.4 | |
| A.Smith13% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -3.6 | |
| A.Beck16% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| K.Herbert7% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| I.Davis38% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.2 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 51)
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence87% | 20/32 | 330 | 5 | +23.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne61% | 12 | 44% | 32 | -3.8 | |
| T.Lawrence87% | 5 | 19% | 51 | 1 | +5.4 |
| L.Jr.29% | 4 | 15% | 11 | -1.9 | |
| N.Mullens13% | 3 | 11% | -2 | 0.0 | |
| D.Brown8% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -5.5 | |
| B.Jr.77% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.0 | |
| B.Tuten18% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers87% | 7 | 25% | 5 | 71 | +4.8 | |
| B.Jr.77% | 7 | 25% | 4 | 66 | 1 | +4.1 |
| T.Etienne61% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 73 | 3 | +10.1 |
| P.Washington45% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 53 | +5.1 | |
| B.Strange82% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 26 | +0.5 | |
| Q.Morris27% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 20 | +1.2 | |
| L.Jr.29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 | |
| B.Tuten18% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | 1 | +2.1 |
Defense M.Brown 1 INT, V.Miller 1 INT, A.Johnson 1 INT, E.Murray 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/2 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Jaguars give up 8.7 targets a game to tight ends (31st), against a league average of 7.3. Jets' tight ends produce 6.2 (20th).
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Jets send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Jets gain -0.19 EPA per dropback (28th). Jaguars allow -0.12 (4th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jets succeed on 40% of plays (29th) against a defense that allows 42% (8th).
The Jaguars lead the series 9–7 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | NYJ 20 at JAX 48 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | NYJ 32 at JAX 25 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | JAX 19 at NYJ 3 |
| 2021 · Wk 16 | JAX 21 at NYJ 26 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | NYJ 15 at JAX 29 |
2025 records
| Jets | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 13–4 |
| Division | 0–6 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–7 | 7–2 |
| Away | 1–7 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | -0.09#6 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 42%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 8%#3 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | -0.12#4 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 5%#30 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.07#16 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 3.7#4 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 42%#21 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 64%#24 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 143#18 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 59#23 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 8.7#31 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 32#20 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.