2025
Week 15 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 17 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 48–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 85%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 10:22, 5 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:22JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to B.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.91% → 96%
- 2Q1 14:18NYJT.Etienne left guard to JAX 43 for 8 yards (J.Sherwood).9% → 14%
- 3Q1 14:56JAXT.Lawrence pass short left to Q.Morris to JAX 35 for 7 yards (T.Adams).86% → 91%
- 4Q1 13:29JAXT.Lawrence pass short left to J.Meyers to NYJ 42 for 15 yards (M.Moore).85% → 89%
- 5Q1 11:36NYJT.Lawrence pass short right to J.Meyers to NYJ 11 for 10 yards (M.Moore).8% → 11%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
I.Williams led the Jets at +5.3 EPA (6 catches for 53). T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +29.1 EPA (20 of 32 for 330).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Cook100% | 22/33 | 176 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall54% | 12 | 38% | 23 | -6.5 | |
| I.Davis38% | 9 | 28% | 58 | 1 | +4.0 |
| B.Cook100% | 6 | 19% | 39 | +0.1 | |
| K.Herbert7% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -0.5 | |
| A.Beck16% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +1.3 | |
| J.III74% | 1 | 3% | 4 | -0.2 | |
| A.Mitchell79% | 1 | 3% | -4 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Mitchell79% | 9 | 28% | 6 | 58 | 1 | +3.1 |
| I.Williams60% | 7 | 22% | 6 | 53 | +5.3 | |
| J.III74% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 25 | +0.2 | |
| A.Lazard | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -6.6 | |
| J.Ruckert74% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 13 | 0.0 | |
| B.Hall54% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 14 | +0.4 | |
| A.Smith13% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -3.6 | |
| A.Beck16% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| K.Herbert7% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| I.Davis38% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.2 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 51)
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence87% | 20/32 | 330 | 5 | +23.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne61% | 12 | 44% | 32 | -3.8 | |
| T.Lawrence87% | 5 | 19% | 51 | 1 | +5.4 |
| L.Jr.29% | 4 | 15% | 11 | -1.9 | |
| N.Mullens13% | 3 | 11% | -2 | 0.0 | |
| D.Brown8% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -5.5 | |
| B.Jr.77% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.0 | |
| B.Tuten18% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers87% | 7 | 25% | 5 | 71 | +4.8 | |
| B.Jr.77% | 7 | 25% | 4 | 66 | 1 | +4.1 |
| T.Etienne61% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 73 | 3 | +10.1 |
| P.Washington45% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 53 | +5.1 | |
| B.Strange82% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 26 | +0.5 | |
| Q.Morris27% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 20 | +1.2 | |
| L.Jr.29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 | |
| B.Tuten18% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | 1 | +2.1 |
Defense M.Brown 1 INT, V.Miller 1 INT, A.Johnson 1 INT, E.Murray 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/2 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Jaguars score a touchdown on 64% of red zone trips (9th). Jets allow 68% (32nd).
Deep right is open
Jets are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.80 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Jets give up 7.2 targets a game to tight ends (16th), against a league average of 7.3. Jaguars' tight ends produce 6.1 (23rd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jaguars gain 5.4 yards per play (15th). Jets give up 5.8 (23rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Jaguars lead the series 9–7 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | NYJ 20 at JAX 48 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | NYJ 32 at JAX 25 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | JAX 19 at NYJ 3 |
| 2021 · Wk 16 | JAX 21 at NYJ 26 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | NYJ 15 at JAX 29 |
2025 records
| Jets | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 13–4 |
| Division | 0–6 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–7 | 7–2 |
| Away | 1–7 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | +0.15#31 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 46%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 5.8#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 12%#28 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | +0.25#32 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 5%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | -0.02#21 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 4.4#20 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 39%#12 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 68%#32 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 136#14 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 54#18 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 7.2#16 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 35#22 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.