2025
Week 15 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Titans offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Titans, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 37–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 87%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:51, 4 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:51SFB.Purdy pass short left to R.Pearsall to SF 38 for 8 yards (K.Winston).87% → 91%
- 2Q2 7:52TENC.Ward pass deep right to G.Helm for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.5% → 9%
- 3Q1 13:59TENJ.Hekker punts 36 yards to SF 30, out of bounds.10% → 13%
- 4Q1 14:07SFC.Ward pass incomplete short right [K.White].88% → 90%
- 5Q1 0:39SFB.Purdy pass deep right to D.Robinson ran ob at TEN 33 for 30 yards.90% → 93%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Pollard led the Titans at +5.9 EPA (14 carries for 104). B.Purdy led the 49ers at +22.1 EPA (23 of 30 for 295).
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 18/29 | 170 | 2 | +1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard53% | 14 | 70% | 104 | 1 | +5.4 |
| T.Spears42% | 3 | 15% | 34 | +3.5 | |
| K.Mullings4% | 1 | 5% | 3 | +0.5 | |
| C.Ward100% | 1 | 5% | 2 | +1.8 | |
| C.Dike70% | 1 | 5% | -7 | -1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Okonkwo57% | 6 | 22% | 4 | 33 | +0.7 | |
| V.Jefferson58% | 5 | 19% | 1 | 43 | +0.9 | |
| C.Dike70% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 17 | -1.3 | |
| G.Helm49% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 49 | 1 | +3.2 |
| T.Pollard53% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| T.Spears42% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 2 | -1.6 | |
| J.Simmons | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.6 |
| J.Proche38% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| E.Ayomanor81% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 17 | +1.2 |
Defense J.Simmons 1 sack, J.Harrell 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 1/2 FG (long 25)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 23/30 | 295 | 3 | 2 | +17.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey84% | 22 | 58% | 73 | 1 | -2.3 |
| B.Robinson16% | 9 | 24% | 21 | -2.4 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 7 | 18% | 44 | +4.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Kittle96% | 9 | 32% | 8 | 88 | 1 | +5.5 |
| R.Pearsall58% | 7 | 25% | 6 | 96 | +8.8 | |
| J.Jennings81% | 5 | 18% | 3 | 37 | 2 | +4.1 |
| K.Bourne45% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 17 | +0.1 | |
| D.Robinson31% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 36 | +4.0 | |
| K.Juszczyk62% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.8 | |
| C.McCaffrey84% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | +0.9 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking E.Pineiro 3/3 FG (long 40)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
49ers give up 8.1 targets a game to tight ends (23rd), against a league average of 7.3. Titans' tight ends produce 8.2 (8th).
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Titans send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor 49ers
Titans convert 33% of third downs (32nd). 49ers allow 41% (18th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Titans succeed on 37% of plays (31st) against a defense that allows 49% (30th).
The 49ers lead the series 4–3 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | TEN 24 at SF 37 |
| 2021 · Wk 16 | SF 17 at TEN 20 |
| 2017 · Wk 15 | TEN 23 at SF 25 |
| 2013 · Wk 7 | SF 31 at TEN 17 |
| 2009 · Wk 9 | TEN 34 at SF 27 |
2025 records
| Titans | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 12–5 |
| Division | 0–6 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 1–8 | 5–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 28.1 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TEN off | Favors TEN · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.16#30 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#30 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#31 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#26 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#19 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#32 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#14 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#27 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#13 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#8 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#19 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Titans: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.