2025
Week 1 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Titans offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Titans, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 20–12 and were favored the whole way, never below 54%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 14:16, 17 points for the Titans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 14:16DENB.Nix pass short right intended for T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by X.Woods [J.Simmons] at DEN 42. X.Woods ran ob at DEN 26 for 16 yards (Q.Meinerz;…23% → 40%
- 2Q4 11:53TENJ.Hekker punts 46 yards to DEN 20 M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-D.Mausi at DEN 24.29% → 46%
- 3Q2 7:10DENB.Nix sacked at DEN 40 for -8 yards (J.Simmons). FUMBLES (J.Simmons) [J.Simmons], RECOVERED by TEN-S.Joseph at DEN 38. S.Joseph to DEN 38 for no…22% → 36%
- 4Q2 3:02TENC.Ward sacked at DEN 15 for -12 yards (N.Bonitto).58% → 70%
- 5Q2 13:21TENT.Pollard right guard to DEN 37 for 2 yards (J.Cooper, T.Hufanga). FUMBLES (T.Hufanga), RECOVERED by DEN-B.Jones at DEN 32. B.Jones to DEN 32 for…69% → 80%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Okonkwo led the Titans at +1.2 EPA (3 catches for 19). M.Jr. led the Broncos at +4.5 EPA (3 catches for 12).
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 12/28 | 112 | 6 | -13.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard89% | 18 | 86% | 60 | -7.6 | |
| J.Chestnut11% | 2 | 10% | 2 | -2.3 | |
| C.Dike18% | 1 | 5% | 9 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ridley95% | 8 | 32% | 4 | 27 | -2.6 | |
| E.Ayomanor79% | 7 | 28% | 2 | 13 | -3.0 | |
| C.Okonkwo88% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 19 | +1.2 | |
| G.Helm40% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 16 | +0.7 | |
| T.Lockett58% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Pollard89% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 29 | +3.5 | |
| B.Oliver5% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| C.Dike18% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense X.Woods 1 INT, R.McCreary 1 INT, J.Simmons 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 4/4 FG (long 50)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 25/40 | 176 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -7.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins53% | 16 | 53% | 63 | 1 | -2.2 |
| B.Nix100% | 8 | 27% | 18 | -5.1 | |
| R.Harvey29% | 6 | 20% | 70 | +2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton95% | 9 | 24% | 6 | 61 | 1 | +3.1 |
| T.Badie18% | 6 | 16% | 2 | 16 | -2.8 | |
| T.Franklin59% | 6 | 16% | 4 | 44 | -2.5 | |
| E.Engram34% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 21 | +1.7 | |
| M.Jr.53% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 12 | +4.5 | |
| J.Dobbins53% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| L.Krull29% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 6 | -1.0 | |
| T.Sherfield34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| A.Trautman58% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 | |
| A.Prentice20% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| R.Harvey29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -0.8 |
Defense Z.Allen 1 sack, J.Strnad 1 sack, J.Cooper 1 sack, N.Bonitto 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Titans' tight ends produce 8.2 (8th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Titans send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Broncos
Titans convert 33% of third downs (32nd). Broncos allow 36% (5th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Titans average -0.16 EPA per play (30th). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Broncos lead the series 6–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 1 | TEN 12 at DEN 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 | DEN 10 at TEN 17 |
| 2020 · Wk 1 | TEN 16 at DEN 14 |
| 2019 · Wk 6 | TEN 0 at DEN 16 |
| 2016 · Wk 14 | DEN 10 at TEN 13 |
2025 records
| Titans | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 14–3 |
| Division | 0–6 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Home | 1–8 | 8–1 |
| Away | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 28.1 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TEN off | Favors TEN · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.16#30 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#30 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#31 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#26 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#19 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#32 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#14 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#27 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#13 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#8 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#19 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Titans: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.