2025
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 17 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 23–20; their low point was 32% at Q1 8:04. The game turned for good at Q4 1:10: B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on ATL-R.Orhorhoro, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play (48% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:23, 28 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:23ATLM.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.35% → 62%
- 2Q4 1:04TBB.Mayfield pass deep middle to E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.58% → 80%
- 3Q4 3:01ATLM.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (S.Dennis). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was…38% → 60%
- 4Q4 0:06TBY.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right77% → 96%
- 5Q4 6:36ATLM.Penix pass short right to D.London to TB 39 for 9 yards (J.Dean). PENALTY on TB-G.Gaines, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 39.32% → 49%
- ★Q4 1:10TBB.Mayfield pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on ATL-R.Orhorhoro, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.turning point48% → 58%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +10.3 EPA (17 of 32 for 167). M.Jr. led the Falcons at +15.6 EPA (27 of 42 for 298).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 17/32 | 167 | 3 | 1 | +5.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving76% | 14 | 61% | 37 | -5.1 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 5 | 22% | 39 | +4.6 | |
| R.White24% | 2 | 9% | 14 | +0.6 | |
| S.Tucker3% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.5 | |
| E.Egbuka93% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Evans83% | 8 | 27% | 5 | 51 | +3.8 | |
| S.Shepard64% | 6 | 20% | 3 | 39 | +0.8 | |
| E.Egbuka93% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 67 | 2 | +6.0 |
| B.Irving76% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 8 | 1 | +0.4 |
| C.Otton86% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| R.White24% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.8 | |
| R.Miller16% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| T.Johnson14% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense H.Reddick 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 1/2 FG (long 48)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 27/42 | 298 | 1 | 1 | +9.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson83% | 12 | 43% | 24 | -8.2 | |
| T.Allgeier25% | 10 | 36% | 24 | -3.5 | |
| M.Jr.100% | 6 | 21% | 21 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London88% | 15 | 36% | 8 | 55 | -5.6 | |
| K.Pitts78% | 8 | 19% | 7 | 59 | +2.9 | |
| B.Robinson83% | 7 | 17% | 6 | 100 | 1 | +7.9 |
| C.Washington95% | 6 | 14% | 3 | 33 | +2.7 | |
| R.McCloud | 5 | 12% | 3 | 51 | +3.5 | |
| K.Hodge11% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
Defense D.Deablo 0.5 sacks, B.Jr. 0.5 sacks · Kicking Y.Koo 2/3 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Falcons give up 144 yards a game to wide receivers (20th), against a league average of 140. Buccaneers' wide receivers produce 155 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Falcons are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.79 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Falcons give up 6.0 targets a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 7.3. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 5.1 (32nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Buccaneers average -0.01 EPA per play (19th). Falcons allow -0.01 (15th). League average is +0.01.
The Buccaneers lead the series 26–25 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Raymond James Stadium: the Buccaneers won 16–0. Baker Mayfield started at quarterback for the Buccaneers and Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons; Todd Bowles and Raheem Morris coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | ATL 0 at TB 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | ATL 29 at TB 28 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | TB 23 at ATL 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | ATL 31 at TB 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 · OT | TB 30 at ATL 36 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Away | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | -0.01#15 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 45%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 5.3#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 10%#20 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.03#13 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 10%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.02#24 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 4.4#23 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 41%#16 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 53%#4 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 144#20 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 46#8 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 6.0#5 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 30#17 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.