2025
Week 1 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
49ers offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for 49ers, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 17–13; their low point was 33% at Q4 4:15. The game turned for good at Q4 0:42: S.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (N.Bosa). FUMBLES (N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-D.Lenoir,… (47% → 98%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:42SFS.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (N.Bosa). FUMBLES (N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-D.Lenoir,…turning point47% → 98%
- 2Q4 1:13SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at SF 14 for 40 yards (R.Green).24% → 49%
- 3Q4 2:38SFB.Purdy pass deep left to R.Pearsall ran ob at SEA 22 for 45 yards (C.Bryant).34% → 58%
- 4Q4 1:44SFB.Purdy pass short right to J.Tonges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Hall].62% → 78%
- 5Q3 2:21SEAJ.Moody 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (J.Love), RECOVERED by SEA-D.Lawrence at SEA 23. D.Lawrence to SEA 31 for 8 yards (C.McKivitz).46% → 62%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Purdy led the 49ers at +14.4 EPA (26 of 35 for 277). J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +0.4 EPA (9 catches for 124).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 26/35 | 277 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +13.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey76% | 22 | 61% | 69 | -5.3 | |
| B.Robinson24% | 9 | 25% | 33 | -1.2 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 5 | 14% | 17 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey76% | 10 | 29% | 9 | 73 | +4.8 | |
| R.Pearsall84% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 108 | +5.1 | |
| J.Jennings66% | 5 | 15% | 2 | 16 | -5.3 | |
| G.Kittle28% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 25 | 1 | +4.3 |
| J.Tonges39% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 15 | 1 | +3.4 |
| K.Juszczyk49% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 32 | +2.3 | |
| B.Robinson24% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.5 | |
| L.Farrell58% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +2.5 |
Defense N.Bosa 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 1/3 FG (long 32)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 16/23 | 150 | 1 | -6.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Charbonnet58% | 12 | 46% | 47 | 1 | -0.1 |
| K.III40% | 10 | 38% | 20 | -3.6 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 2 | 8% | 14 | +1.0 | |
| A.Barner85% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.2 | |
| J.Milroe2% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba77% | 13 | 59% | 9 | 124 | +0.4 | |
| C.Kupp88% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 15 | -2.0 | |
| K.III40% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| A.Barner85% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 0 | -2.7 | |
| E.Arroyo31% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 |
Defense E.Jones 1 INT, J.Jobe 1 INT, J.Love 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Seahawks give up 41 yards a game to running backs (27th), against a league average of 32. 49ers' running backs produce 69 (1st).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. 49ers send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
49ers average 3.7 yards per carry (29th). Seahawks allow 3.5 (1st).
Success rate
Call this one even. 49ers succeed on 48% of plays (3rd) against a defense that allows 40% (3rd).
The Seahawks lead the series 31–21 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Oct 11, 2026, at Lumen Field: the 49ers won 32–29. Drew Lock started at quarterback for the Seahawks and Brock Purdy for the 49ers; Mike Macdonald and Kyle Shanahan coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | SF 32 at SEA 29 |
| 2025 · Wk 20 · playoffs | SF 6 at SEA 41 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | SEA 13 at SF 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | SF 17 at SEA 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 11 | SEA 20 at SF 17 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Away | 7–2 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SF off | Favors SF · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#9 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 48%#3 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#8 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#4 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#13 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#29 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 51%#1 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#2 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 124#24 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#12 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#13 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 69#1 | 41#27 | 32 | |
49ers: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.