2025
Week 1 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 17–13; their low point was 33% at Q4 4:15. The game turned for good at Q4 0:42: S.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (N.Bosa). FUMBLES (N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-D.Lenoir,… (47% → 98%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:42SEAS.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (N.Bosa). FUMBLES (N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-D.Lenoir,…turning point47% → 98%
- 2Q4 1:13SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at SF 14 for 40 yards (R.Green).24% → 49%
- 3Q4 2:38SFB.Purdy pass deep left to R.Pearsall ran ob at SEA 22 for 45 yards (C.Bryant).34% → 58%
- 4Q4 1:44SFB.Purdy pass short right to J.Tonges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Hall].62% → 78%
- 5Q3 2:21SFJ.Moody 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (J.Love), RECOVERED by SEA-D.Lawrence at SEA 23. D.Lawrence to SEA 31 for 8 yards (C.McKivitz).46% → 62%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Purdy led the 49ers at +14.4 EPA (26 of 35 for 277). J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +0.4 EPA (9 catches for 124).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 26/35 | 277 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +13.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey76% | 22 | 61% | 69 | -5.3 | |
| B.Robinson24% | 9 | 25% | 33 | -1.2 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 5 | 14% | 17 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey76% | 10 | 29% | 9 | 73 | +4.8 | |
| R.Pearsall84% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 108 | +5.1 | |
| J.Jennings66% | 5 | 15% | 2 | 16 | -5.3 | |
| G.Kittle28% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 25 | 1 | +4.3 |
| J.Tonges39% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 15 | 1 | +3.4 |
| K.Juszczyk49% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 32 | +2.3 | |
| B.Robinson24% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.5 | |
| L.Farrell58% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +2.5 |
Defense N.Bosa 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 1/3 FG (long 32)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 16/23 | 150 | 1 | -6.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Charbonnet58% | 12 | 46% | 47 | 1 | -0.1 |
| K.III40% | 10 | 38% | 20 | -3.6 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 2 | 8% | 14 | +1.0 | |
| A.Barner85% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.2 | |
| J.Milroe2% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba77% | 13 | 59% | 9 | 124 | +0.4 | |
| C.Kupp88% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 15 | -2.0 | |
| K.III40% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| A.Barner85% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 0 | -2.7 | |
| E.Arroyo31% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 |
Defense E.Jones 1 INT, J.Jobe 1 INT, J.Love 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Seahawks take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (11th). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
49ers give up 53 yards a game to tight ends (17th), against a league average of 53. Seahawks' tight ends produce 40 (27th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Seahawks create explosive plays on 11% of snaps (7th). 49ers give them up at 8% (4th).
The Seahawks lead the series 31–21 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Oct 11, 2026, at Lumen Field: the 49ers won 32–29. Drew Lock started at quarterback for the Seahawks and Brock Purdy for the 49ers; Mike Macdonald and Kyle Shanahan coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | SF 32 at SEA 29 |
| 2025 · Wk 20 · playoffs | SF 6 at SEA 41 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | SEA 13 at SF 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | SF 17 at SEA 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 11 | SEA 20 at SF 17 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Away | 7–2 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.