2025
Week 18 · Saturday 8:00 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Seahawks offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 13–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 54%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 7:27, 9 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:27SFS.Darnold pass incomplete short left to C.Kupp.37% → 46%
- 2Q4 10:27SEAB.Purdy pass short right intended for C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by D.Thomas (B.Mafe) at SEA 3. D.Thomas pushed ob at SEA 3 for no gain (C.McCaffrey).83% → 91%
- 3Q1 4:37SEAZ.Charbonnet left tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.65% → 73%
- 4Q2 9:41SEAB.Purdy pass incomplete short left to K.Juszczyk (T.Woolen) [J.Reed].74% → 81%
- 5Q3 3:48SEAK.Walker right end to SEA 44 for 19 yards (Y.Gross-Matos).79% → 86%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +5.9 EPA (6 catches for 84). D.Robinson led the 49ers at +1.4 EPA (3 catches for 24).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 20/26 | 198 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Charbonnet57% | 17 | 44% | 74 | 1 | -3.3 |
| K.III42% | 16 | 41% | 97 | +2.7 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 6 | 15% | 9 | -2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba83% | 8 | 31% | 6 | 84 | +5.9 | |
| K.III42% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 36 | +2.1 | |
| Z.Charbonnet57% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 23 | +0.7 | |
| E.Saubert70% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 10 | +0.0 | |
| C.Kupp77% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 29 | -0.2 | |
| A.Barner61% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 14 | -0.7 | |
| R.Shaheed48% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.3 |
Defense D.Thomas 1 INT, J.Reed 1 sack, U.Nwosu 1 sack, D.Hall 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/4 FG (long 45)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 19/27 | 127 | 1 | 3 | -13.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey86% | 8 | 67% | 23 | -2.2 | |
| B.Robinson14% | 2 | 17% | 9 | -0.3 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 2 | 17% | 21 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey86% | 7 | 26% | 6 | 34 | -4.3 | |
| G.Kittle95% | 7 | 26% | 5 | 29 | -1.4 | |
| J.Jennings88% | 6 | 22% | 4 | 35 | -1.3 | |
| D.Robinson88% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 24 | +1.4 | |
| K.Juszczyk45% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -3.3 | |
| K.Bourne52% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Defense S.Okuayinonu 1 sack, T.Bethune 1 sack · Kicking E.Pineiro 1/1 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Seahawks take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (11th). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
49ers give up 53 yards a game to tight ends (17th), against a league average of 53. Seahawks' tight ends produce 40 (27th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Seahawks create explosive plays on 11% of snaps (7th). 49ers give them up at 8% (4th).
The Seahawks lead the series 31–21 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Oct 11, 2026, at Lumen Field: the 49ers won 32–29. Drew Lock started at quarterback for the Seahawks and Brock Purdy for the 49ers; Mike Macdonald and Kyle Shanahan coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | SF 32 at SEA 29 |
| 2025 · Wk 20 · playoffs | SF 6 at SEA 41 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | SEA 13 at SF 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | SF 17 at SEA 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 11 | SEA 20 at SF 17 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 12–5 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Away | 8–1 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 7 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.