2025
Conference · Sunday 3:00 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Patriots offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
M.Hollins led the Patriots at +5.3 EPA (2 catches for 51). M.Jr. led the Broncos at +1.2 EPA (4 catches for 62).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye | 10/21 | 86 | 5 | -10.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson | 25 | 66% | 71 | -5.1 | |
| D.Maye | 10 | 26% | 65 | 1 | +7.7 |
| T.Henderson | 3 | 8% | 5 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs | 6 | 30% | 5 | 17 | -2.9 | |
| K.Boutte | 6 | 30% | 1 | 6 | -2.0 | |
| H.Henry | 3 | 15% | 2 | 12 | -0.2 | |
| R.Stevenson | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| M.Hollins | 2 | 10% | 2 | 51 | +5.3 | |
| D.Douglas | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense C.Gonzalez 1 sack and 1 INT, C.Elliss 1 sack, C.Barmore 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/3 FG (long 23)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Stidham | 17/31 | 133 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -15.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey | 13 | 54% | 37 | -2.0 | |
| J.Stidham | 4 | 17% | 23 | +0.1 | |
| J.McLaughlin | 4 | 17% | 11 | -0.9 | |
| P.Bryant | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.4 | |
| A.Prentice | 1 | 4% | 3 | +0.1 | |
| T.Badie | 1 | 4% | 4 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey | 6 | 22% | 4 | 22 | -4.0 | |
| M.Jr. | 6 | 22% | 4 | 62 | +1.2 | |
| C.Sutton | 5 | 19% | 3 | 17 | 1 | -0.1 |
| E.Engram | 3 | 11% | 2 | 19 | -0.1 | |
| L.Humphrey | 3 | 11% | 1 | 5 | -0.5 | |
| J.McLaughlin | 2 | 7% | 1 | 2 | -1.3 | |
| P.Bryant | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.2 | |
| E.Moore | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -1.1 |
Defense D.Jones 1.5 sacks, Q.Robinson 1 sack, Z.Allen 1 sack, J.Cooper 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 0/2 FG
Each player's line for this game counted from the play-by-play, since nflverse's weekly stats for it haven't posted yet; they replace these lines with the next build once they do. The percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 60 yards a game to tight ends (24th), against a league average of 53. Patriots' tight ends produce 56 (14th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Patriots take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Broncos get home on 11% (1st). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Patriots gain 6.1 yards per play (3rd). Broncos give up 4.5 (1st), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 13–10 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 21 · playoffs | NE 10 at DEN 7 |
| 2023 · Wk 16 | NE 26 at DEN 23 |
| 2020 · Wk 6 | DEN 18 at NE 12 |
| 2017 · Wk 10 | NE 41 at DEN 16 |
| 2016 · Wk 15 | NE 16 at DEN 3 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 14–3 |
| Division | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 5–0 |
| Home | 6–3 | 8–1 |
| Away | 8–0 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WWLWW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.