2025
Week 13 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cardinals, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 20–17; their low point was 49% at Q1 3:47. The game turned for good at Q1 3:47: J.Brissett pass short middle intended for M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by A.Winfield (J.Dean) at TB 9. A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (Z.Knight; G.Dortch) (49% → 62%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:47TBJ.Brissett pass short middle intended for M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by A.Winfield (J.Dean) at TB 9. A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (Z.Knight; G.Dortch).turning point49% → 62%
- 2Q3 14:07TBJ.Z.Knight up the middle to TB 43 for 2 yards (L.Hall). FUMBLES (L.Hall), RECOVERED by TB-T.Smith at TB 40.77% → 88%
- 3Q4 0:55TBJ.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to M.Wilson (S.Dennis).90% → 99%
- 4Q4 5:02ARIJ.Brissett pass short middle to T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12% → 20%
- 5Q3 7:50TBC.Ryland 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right79% → 87%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.McBride led the Cardinals at +6.2 EPA (8 catches for 82). C.Jr. led the Buccaneers at +4.7 EPA (3 catches for 78).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 29/40 | 301 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +5.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Knight48% | 11 | 58% | 62 | -6.1 | |
| M.Carter52% | 5 | 26% | 17 | -0.5 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 3 | 16% | 16 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride89% | 9 | 24% | 8 | 82 | 1 | +6.2 |
| M.Wilson93% | 7 | 19% | 3 | 36 | -8.4 | |
| M.Jr.61% | 7 | 19% | 6 | 69 | +3.6 | |
| M.Carter52% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 47 | +2.1 | |
| B.Knight48% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 36 | 1 | +4.1 |
| G.Dortch33% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 14 | +1.3 | |
| E.Higgins41% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 17 | +0.9 | |
| X.Weaver49% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Sweat 2 sacks · Kicking C.Ryland 1/2 FG (long 52)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 18/28 | 194 | 1 | 2 | +1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving52% | 17 | 63% | 61 | 1 | +1.2 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 6 | 22% | 27 | -2.6 | |
| R.White38% | 2 | 7% | 7 | -0.1 | |
| S.Tucker15% | 2 | 7% | 0 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka85% | 8 | 31% | 4 | 42 | -2.0 | |
| C.Jr.66% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 78 | +4.7 | |
| R.White38% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 22 | +0.1 | |
| S.Shepard26% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 5 | +0.5 | |
| C.Otton97% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 9 | -0.1 | |
| B.Irving52% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 20 | +0.6 | |
| T.Johnson57% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 5 | -0.5 | |
| T.Wirfs | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3.0 |
| P.Durham43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.6 |
Defense A.Jr. 1 INT, V.Vea 1 sack, Y.Diaby 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Buccaneers give up 51 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Cardinals' running backs produce 38 (6th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Cardinals' run game is 29th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Buccaneers allow -0.11 (5th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Cardinals succeed on 43% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 45% (20th).
The Buccaneers lead the series 5–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | ARI 17 at TB 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 · OT | TB 19 at ARI 16 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | ARI 27 at TB 30 |
| 2017 · Wk 6 | TB 33 at ARI 38 |
| 2016 · Wk 2 | TB 7 at ARI 40 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 8–9 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Home | 1–7 | 4–4 |
| Away | 2–7 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#22 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#21 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#23 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#29 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#15 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#29 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#24 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#9 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#22 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 125#23 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 93#1 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 12.8#1 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#6 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.