2025
Week 13 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 20–17; their low point was 49% at Q1 3:47. The game turned for good at Q1 3:47: J.Brissett pass short middle intended for M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by A.Winfield (J.Dean) at TB 9. A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (Z.Knight; G.Dortch) (49% → 62%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:47TBJ.Brissett pass short middle intended for M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by A.Winfield (J.Dean) at TB 9. A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (Z.Knight; G.Dortch).turning point49% → 62%
- 2Q3 14:07TBJ.Z.Knight up the middle to TB 43 for 2 yards (L.Hall). FUMBLES (L.Hall), RECOVERED by TB-T.Smith at TB 40.77% → 88%
- 3Q4 0:55TBJ.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to M.Wilson (S.Dennis).90% → 99%
- 4Q4 5:02ARIJ.Brissett pass short middle to T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12% → 20%
- 5Q3 7:50TBC.Ryland 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right79% → 87%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.McBride led the Cardinals at +6.2 EPA (8 catches for 82). C.Jr. led the Buccaneers at +4.7 EPA (3 catches for 78).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 29/40 | 301 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +5.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Knight48% | 11 | 58% | 62 | -6.1 | |
| M.Carter52% | 5 | 26% | 17 | -0.5 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 3 | 16% | 16 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride89% | 9 | 24% | 8 | 82 | 1 | +6.2 |
| M.Wilson93% | 7 | 19% | 3 | 36 | -8.4 | |
| M.Jr.61% | 7 | 19% | 6 | 69 | +3.6 | |
| M.Carter52% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 47 | +2.1 | |
| B.Knight48% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 36 | 1 | +4.1 |
| G.Dortch33% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 14 | +1.3 | |
| E.Higgins41% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 17 | +0.9 | |
| X.Weaver49% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Sweat 2 sacks · Kicking C.Ryland 1/2 FG (long 52)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 18/28 | 194 | 1 | 2 | +1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving52% | 17 | 63% | 61 | 1 | +1.2 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 6 | 22% | 27 | -2.6 | |
| R.White38% | 2 | 7% | 7 | -0.1 | |
| S.Tucker15% | 2 | 7% | 0 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka85% | 8 | 31% | 4 | 42 | -2.0 | |
| C.Jr.66% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 78 | +4.7 | |
| R.White38% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 22 | +0.1 | |
| S.Shepard26% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 5 | +0.5 | |
| C.Otton97% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 9 | -0.1 | |
| B.Irving52% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 20 | +0.6 | |
| T.Johnson57% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 5 | -0.5 | |
| T.Wirfs | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3.0 |
| P.Durham43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.6 |
Defense A.Jr. 1 INT, V.Vea 1 sack, Y.Diaby 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Buccaneers
Buccaneers convert 42% of third downs (12th). Cardinals allow 46% (29th).
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cardinals give up 8.4 targets a game to tight ends (30th), against a league average of 7.3. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 5.1 (32nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Buccaneers gain 5.2 yards per play (24th). Cardinals give up 5.8 (25th), with the league at 5.4.
The Buccaneers lead the series 5–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | ARI 17 at TB 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 · OT | TB 19 at ARI 16 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | ARI 27 at TB 30 |
| 2017 · Wk 6 | TB 33 at ARI 38 |
| 2016 · Wk 2 | TB 7 at ARI 40 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 8–9 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Home | 1–7 | 4–4 |
| Away | 2–7 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.