2025
Week 13 · Friday 3:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
vs
Bears offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 24–15 from as low as 22% (Q1 7:16, tied 0–0). The Eagles had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 0:56: C.Williams pass short left to C.Loveland ran ob at PHI 30 for 7 yards (49% → 59%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 6:44, 23 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 6:44PHIC.Williams pass short left intended for K.Monangai INTERCEPTED by J.Hunt at CHI 47. J.Hunt to CHI 36 for 11 yards (C.Williams).46% → 68%
- 2Q3 4:46CHIJ.Hurts up the middle to CHI 11 for 1 yard (N.Wright). FUMBLES (N.Wright), RECOVERED by CHI-N.Wright at CHI 13.28% → 47%
- 3Q3 8:11PHIJ.Hurts pass deep left to A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.48% → 62%
- 4Q3 11:40CHIJ.Hurts pass deep right intended for A.Brown INTERCEPTED by K.Byard at CHI 49. K.Byard ran ob at CHI 49 for no gain.57% → 68%
- 5Q3 0:56CHIC.Williams pass short left to C.Loveland ran ob at PHI 30 for 7 yards.turning point49% → 59%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Swift led the Bears at +5.4 EPA (18 carries for 125). A.Brown led the Eagles at +6.6 EPA (10 catches for 132).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 17/36 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Monangai45% | 22 | 47% | 130 | 1 | +2.0 |
| D.Swift53% | 18 | 38% | 125 | 1 | +5.1 |
| C.Williams100% | 5 | 11% | 13 | +1.9 | |
| D.Moore91% | 1 | 2% | 10 | +0.9 | |
| L.III51% | 1 | 2% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze80% | 6 | 19% | 2 | 8 | -2.4 | |
| C.Loveland59% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 28 | +3.2 | |
| L.III51% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 33 | -1.7 | |
| D.Moore91% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 17 | +0.9 | |
| O.Zaccheaus28% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 19 | +2.7 | |
| C.Kmet67% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 36 | 1 | +3.8 |
| D.Swift53% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 13 | +0.4 | |
| K.Monangai45% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -6.9 |
Defense K.Byard 1 INT · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG (long 30)
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 19/34 | 230 | 2 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley93% | 13 | 76% | 56 | -1.0 | |
| J.Hurts100% | 4 | 24% | 31 | -3.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown96% | 12 | 40% | 10 | 132 | 2 | +6.6 |
| D.Smith94% | 8 | 27% | 5 | 48 | +2.6 | |
| D.Goedert89% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 27 | -1.9 | |
| J.Dotson59% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 12 | -0.5 | |
| S.Barkley93% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.1 | |
| W.Shipley7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | -0.2 |
Defense J.Hunt 1 INT, J.Carter 1 sack, N.Smith 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 1/2 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bears
Bears convert 44% of third downs (6th). Eagles allow 43% (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Bears score a touchdown on 58% of red zone trips (17th). Eagles allow 55% (9th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bears succeed on 45% of plays (11th) against a defense that allows 42% (10th).
The Eagles lead the series 12–6 since 1999. The Bears have won the last 2. Sep 28, 2026, at Soldier Field: the Bears won 27–7. Case Keenum started at quarterback for the Bears and Jalen Hurts for the Eagles; Ben Johnson and Nick Sirianni coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | PHI 7 at CHI 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | CHI 24 at PHI 15 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | PHI 25 at CHI 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 9 | CHI 14 at PHI 22 |
| 2018 · Wk 18 · playoffs | PHI 16 at CHI 15 |
2025 records
| Bears | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 11–6 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 6–3 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | LWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 22.3 – 19.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.