2025
Week 13 · Thursday 8:20 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 32–14 from as low as 16% (Q1 4:18, down 7–3). The Ravens had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 13:40: L.Jackson scrambles right tackle pushed ob at BAL 28 for 1 yard (M.Murphy) (49% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 13:04, 15 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:04CINL.Jackson pass short middle intended for M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by D.Knight (M.Murphy) at CIN 8. D.Knight to CIN 47 for 39 yards (E.Jones).77% → 93%
- 2Q2 0:36CINL.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 15, RECOVERED by CIN-C.Johnson at BAL 19.39% → 55%
- 3Q1 3:36CINL.Jackson sacked at BAL 6 for -9 yards (J.Ossai). FUMBLES (J.Ossai) [J.Ossai], RECOVERED by CIN-C.Johnson at BAL 6. C.Johnson to BAL 2 for 4 yards…18% → 30%
- 4Q3 0:07BALL.Jackson pass short left to D.Henry to CIN 31 for 44 yards (M.Murphy).20% → 30%
- 5Q2 4:10CINJ.Burrow pass short right to J.Chase ran ob at BAL 10 for 15 yards.34% → 44%
- ★Q3 13:40CINL.Jackson scrambles right tackle pushed ob at BAL 28 for 1 yard (M.Murphy).turning point49% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Burrow led the Bengals at +7.7 EPA (24 of 46 for 261). D.Henry led the Ravens at +5.0 EPA (10 carries for 60).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 24/46 | 261 | 2 | 1 | +6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown60% | 15 | 45% | 78 | -0.1 | |
| S.Perine40% | 14 | 42% | 39 | -7.2 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 3 | 9% | 8 | +1.6 | |
| D.Sample59% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase99% | 14 | 32% | 7 | 110 | +7.3 | |
| M.Tinsley67% | 9 | 20% | 2 | 22 | -1.9 | |
| C.Brown60% | 7 | 16% | 7 | 35 | -0.2 | |
| M.Gesicki28% | 4 | 9% | 2 | 19 | -0.2 | |
| S.Perine40% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 15 | -1.0 | |
| T.Hudson7% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 14 | 1 | +3.0 |
| D.Sample59% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +0.5 | |
| N.Fant42% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| A.Iosivas94% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 29 | 1 | +2.4 |
Defense J.Ossai 2 sacks, D.Jr. 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 6/6 FG (long 52)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 17/32 | 246 | 1 | 3 | -11.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry40% | 10 | 45% | 60 | 1 | +2.1 |
| L.Jackson100% | 6 | 27% | 27 | +2.1 | |
| R.Ali48% | 4 | 18% | 17 | -1.3 | |
| K.Mitchell13% | 2 | 9% | 19 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers95% | 7 | 23% | 2 | 6 | -11.1 | |
| M.Andrews68% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 47 | -3.0 | |
| I.Likely52% | 6 | 20% | 5 | 95 | -0.6 | |
| D.Hopkins38% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 25 | +0.9 | |
| K.Mitchell13% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 12 | +0.3 | |
| D.Walker28% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Henry40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 44 | +2.9 | |
| R.Bateman73% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| C.Kolar17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 17 | +1.1 |
Defense M.Humphrey 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Ravens give up 168 yards a game to wide receivers (30th), against a league average of 140. Bengals' wide receivers produce 167 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Ravens give up 47 yards a game to tight ends (9th), against a league average of 53. Bengals' tight ends produce 52 (15th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bengals average -0.01 EPA per play (20th). Ravens allow +0.03 (20th). League average is +0.01.
The Ravens lead the series 30–26 since 1999. Oct 25, 2026, at M&T Bank Stadium: the Bengals won 35–13. Tyler Huntley started at quarterback for the Ravens and Joe Burrow for the Bengals; Jesse Minter and Zac Taylor coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | CIN 35 at BAL 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | BAL 24 at CIN 0 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | CIN 32 at BAL 14 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | CIN 34 at BAL 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 · OT | BAL 41 at CIN 38 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Away | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | LWLWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.