DOWN X DOWN › week 13 › Bengals at Ravens

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2025

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Week 13 · Thursday 8:20 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium

Ravens offensevsBengals defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

CIN offense BAL offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · CIN 32 · BAL 14

The Bengals won 32–14 from as low as 16% (Q1 4:18, down 7⁠–⁠3). The Ravens had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 13:40: L.Jackson scrambles right tackle pushed ob at BAL 28 for 1 yard (M.Murphy) (49% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 13:04, 15 points for the Bengals.

At kickoffBAL 77%BAL by 7 on the line

CIN low point16%Q1 4:18 · down 7⁠–⁠3

Swings past 50%5times the favorite changed

Biggest swing15 ptsCIN · Q4 13:04

BAL wins50%CIN wins

12345Turning pointCIN low 16%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 13:04BALL.Jackson pass short middle intended for M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by D.Knight (M.Murphy) at CIN 8. D.Knight to CIN 47 for 39 yards (E.Jones).77% → 93%+15 CIN
2Q2 0:36BALL.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 15, RECOVERED by CIN-C.Johnson at BAL 19.39% → 55%+15 CIN
3Q1 3:36BALL.Jackson sacked at BAL 6 for -9 yards (J.Ossai). FUMBLES (J.Ossai) [J.Ossai], RECOVERED by CIN-C.Johnson at BAL 6. C.Johnson to BAL 2 for 4 yards…18% → 30%+12 CIN
4Q3 0:07BALL.Jackson pass short left to D.Henry to CIN 31 for 44 yards (M.Murphy).20% → 30%+11 BAL
5Q2 4:10CINJ.Burrow pass short right to J.Chase ran ob at BAL 10 for 15 yards.34% → 44%+10 CIN
★Q3 13:40BALL.Jackson scrambles right tackle pushed ob at BAL 28 for 1 yard (M.Murphy).turning point49% → 53%+4 CIN

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 13

J.Burrow led the Bengals at +7.7 EPA (24 of 46 for 261). D.Henry led the Ravens at +5.0 EPA (10 carries for 60).

Bengals

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Burrow100%	24/46	261	2		1	+6.1

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
C.Brown60%	15	45%	78	-0.1
S.Perine40%	14	42%	39	-7.2
J.Burrow100%	3	9%	8	+1.6
D.Sample59%	1	3%	3	-0.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Chase99%	14	32%	7	110		+7.3
M.Tinsley67%	9	20%	2	22		-1.9
C.Brown60%	7	16%	7	35		-0.2
M.Gesicki28%	4	9%	2	19		-0.2
S.Perine40%	2	5%	2	15		-1.0
T.Hudson7%	2	5%	1	14	1	+3.0
D.Sample59%	2	5%	1	14		+0.5
N.Fant42%	2	5%	1	3		-1.1
A.Iosivas94%	2	5%	1	29	1	+2.4

Defense J.Ossai 2 sacks, D.Jr. 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 6/6 FG (long 52)

Ravens

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
L.Jackson100%	17/32	246		1	3	-11.8

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
D.Henry40%	10	45%	60	1	+2.1
L.Jackson100%	6	27%	27		+2.1
R.Ali48%	4	18%	17		-1.3
K.Mitchell13%	2	9%	19	1	+1.5

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
Z.Flowers95%	7	23%	2	6	-11.1
M.Andrews68%	6	20%	4	47	-3.0
I.Likely52%	6	20%	5	95	-0.6
D.Hopkins38%	3	10%	2	25	+0.9
K.Mitchell13%	3	10%	2	12	+0.3
D.Walker28%	2	7%	0	0	-0.9
D.Henry40%	1	3%	1	44	+2.9
R.Bateman73%	1	3%	0	0	-0.4
C.Kolar17%	1	3%	1	17	+1.1

Defense M.Humphrey 1 sack

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Ground game edge

Ravens average 5.2 yards per carry (1st). Bengals allow 5.2 (31st).

Opportunity

Deep left is open

Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Wideouts get blanketed

Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Ravens' wide receivers produce 114 (25th).

Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Ravens succeed on 45% of plays (14th) against a defense that allows 48% (28th).

The series · Bengals and Ravens since 1999, and this season's records56 meetings

The Ravens lead the series 30–26 since 1999. Oct 25, 2026, at M&T Bank Stadium: the Bengals won 35–13. Tyler Huntley started at quarterback for the Ravens and Joe Burrow for the Bengals; Jesse Minter and Zac Taylor coached.

Bengals at home16–12the Bengals' record

In Baltimore10–18the Bengals' record

Most pointsBengals 42 · Ravens 492005 · 2019

Biggest winBengals by 24 · Ravens by 372021 · 2000

Playoffs1–0the Bengals' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 7	CIN 35 at BAL 13
2025 · Wk 15	BAL 24 at CIN 0
2025 · Wk 13	CIN 32 at BAL 14
2024 · Wk 10	CIN 34 at BAL 35
2024 · Wk 5 · OT	BAL 41 at CIN 38

2025 records

	Bengals	Ravens
Overall	6–11	8–9
Division	3–3	3–3
Conference	5–7	5–7
Other conference	1–4	3–2
Home	3–6	3–6
Away	3–5	5–3
Last 5	LLWWL	LWLWL
Streak	Lost 1	Lost 1
Points a game	24.4 – 28.9	24.9 – 23.4

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · BAL offense against CIN defense

Stat	BAL off	CIN def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.03#11	+0.13#29	+0.01
Success rate	45%#14	48%#28	44%
Yards per play	5.9#6	6.3#32	5.4
Explosive play rate	12%#2	12%#30	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.04#24	+0.16#28	+0.01
Sack rate	10%#27	6%#22	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	+0.05#3	+0.06#31	-0.05
Yards per carry	5.2#1	5.2#31	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	41%#15	44%#26	40%
Red zone TD rate	49%#27	65%#25	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	114#25	116#3	140
TE yards per game	51#17	85#32	53
TE targets per game	7.2#17	9.7#32	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	27#22	43#29	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Ravens: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+1.386% of throws

+1.213% of throws

+0.1610% of throws

Short

+0.1929% of throws

+0.0522% of throws

-0.1731% of throws

Bengals: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.7038 throws

+0.0621 throws

+0.0735 throws