2025
Week 13 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Broncos offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Broncos, 17 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 27–26 and were favored the whole way in regulation, never below 59%. Tied 20–20 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 2:50: M.Mariota pass short left to T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:04, 21 points for the Commanders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:04WASJ.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD29% → 50%
- 2Q4 0:52WASM.Mariota pass short middle to Z.Ertz to DEN 37 for 8 yards (J.Barron).20% → 37%
- 3Q3 10:02WASM.Mariota pass short right to T.Burks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.25% → 38%
- 4Q3 7:23DENB.Nix pass deep left to C.Sutton to WAS 29 for 31 yards (W.Harris).59% → 70%
- 5Q4 2:17WASJ.McNichols up the middle to WAS 37 for 2 yards (N.Bonitto).19% → 30%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
B.Nix led the Broncos at +11.7 EPA (29 of 45 for 321). T.McLaurin led the Commanders at +5.9 EPA (7 catches for 96).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 29/45 | 321 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +9.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey47% | 13 | 57% | 35 | 2 | +0.4 |
| J.McLaughlin19% | 6 | 26% | 24 | -0.9 | |
| B.Nix100% | 2 | 9% | 16 | +1.8 | |
| A.Prentice23% | 1 | 4% | 3 | +0.6 | |
| M.Jr.33% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Engram54% | 9 | 21% | 6 | 79 | +1.8 | |
| P.Bryant70% | 7 | 16% | 3 | 42 | -2.2 | |
| C.Sutton81% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 62 | 1 | +6.4 |
| T.Badie26% | 5 | 12% | 3 | 18 | -0.2 | |
| A.Trautman59% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 47 | +5.0 | |
| R.Harvey47% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 27 | +1.0 | |
| T.Franklin53% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 21 | -0.1 | |
| M.Jr.33% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 8 | +0.4 | |
| L.Humphrey20% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| A.Prentice23% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 11 | +1.8 | |
| J.McLaughlin19% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 6 | -0.3 |
Defense D.Greenlaw 1 INT, N.Bonitto 1 sack, D.Tillman 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 33)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota100% | 28/50 | 294 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -0.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.41% | 11 | 33% | 41 | 1 | +0.5 |
| M.Mariota100% | 10 | 30% | 55 | +4.4 | |
| J.McNichols49% | 6 | 18% | 30 | +3.4 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt14% | 4 | 12% | 20 | -0.1 | |
| D.Sr.70% | 2 | 6% | -3 | -1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McLaurin51% | 14 | 31% | 7 | 96 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Z.Ertz67% | 13 | 29% | 10 | 106 | +3.6 | |
| D.Sr.70% | 7 | 16% | 5 | 64 | +3.4 | |
| T.Burks66% | 4 | 9% | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1.3 |
| J.McNichols49% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 0 | -2.3 | |
| J.Bates51% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 9 | -0.4 | |
| C.Jr.41% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -5.8 | |
| C.Yankoff4% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 14 | +1.0 | |
| J.Lane39% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Defense B.Wagner 1 INT, F.Luvu 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 2/2 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Broncos gain +0.05 EPA per dropback (12th). Commanders allow +0.20 (30th).
Deep middle is open
Commanders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.54 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Commanders give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 7.3. Broncos' tight ends produce 6.5 (18th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Broncos create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (20th). Commanders give them up at 11% (26th).
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 · OT | DEN 27 at WAS 26 |
| 2023 · Wk 2 | WAS 35 at DEN 33 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | WAS 10 at DEN 17 |
| 2017 · Wk 16 | DEN 11 at WAS 27 |
| 2013 · Wk 8 | WAS 21 at DEN 45 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 5–12 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 8–1 | 2–6 |
| Away | 6–2 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | LWLLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#14 | +0.14#30 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#17 | 48%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#17 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 11%#26 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#12 | +0.20#30 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#1 | 7%#12 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#19 | +0.03#28 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#18 | 4.7#28 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#11 | 42%#22 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#16 | 67%#30 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 153#12 | 163#27 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 39#28 | 61#26 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#18 | 6.7#10 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#8 | 33#21 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.