2025
Week 13 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Giants offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Giants, 21 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 33–15 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 5:37, 10 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:37NEJ.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6 M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.76% → 86%
- 2Q2 12:55NYGJ.Dart pass short left to D.Slayton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6% → 12%
- 3Q2 6:28NE(Field Goal formation) J.Gillan right end to NE 42 for -13 yards (J.Pharms).88% → 92%
- 4Q1 8:34NYGJ.Dart pass short right to D.Slayton to NYG 37 for 11 yards (C.Davis; J.Hawkins).25% → 29%
- 5Q1 7:40NEJ.Dart sacked at NYG 32 for -5 yards (H.Landry).71% → 75%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Singletary led the Giants at +6.3 EPA (12 carries for 68). D.Maye led the Patriots at +13.3 EPA (24 of 31 for 282).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dart100% | 17/24 | 139 | 1 | 2 | -4.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Singletary51% | 12 | 44% | 68 | 1 | +4.1 |
| T.Jr.49% | 10 | 37% | 36 | -0.5 | |
| J.Dart100% | 4 | 15% | 20 | -0.9 | |
| J.Gillan | 1 | 4% | -13 | -3.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson100% | 8 | 33% | 7 | 34 | -1.4 | |
| T.Johnson89% | 8 | 33% | 3 | 29 | -4.1 | |
| D.Singletary51% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 34 | +2.1 | |
| D.Slayton76% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 41 | 1 | +4.4 |
| I.Hodgins89% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 | |
| T.Jr.49% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -3 | -2.7 |
Defense D.Belton 1 sack, Z.Barnes 1 sack, A.Carter 1 sack
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 24/31 | 282 | 2 | 3 | +11.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson58% | 12 | 41% | 40 | -3.6 | |
| T.Henderson49% | 11 | 38% | 67 | +0.6 | |
| D.Maye100% | 6 | 21% | 12 | +1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry75% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 73 | +5.6 | |
| K.Boutte75% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 35 | 1 | +1.9 |
| S.Diggs48% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 26 | +2.8 | |
| M.Hollins75% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 23 | +0.4 | |
| T.Henderson49% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 19 | -0.6 | |
| R.Stevenson58% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 40 | +0.3 | |
| D.Douglas34% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 33 | +1.4 | |
| K.Williams22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 33 | 1 | +4.8 |
Defense H.III 1 sack, E.Ponder 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 4/5 FG (long 30)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Patriots give up 29 yards a game to running backs (11th), against a league average of 32. Giants' running backs produce 38 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Patriots are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.32 EPA per attempt. Giants send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Patriots give up 117 yards a game to wide receivers (4th), against a league average of 140. Giants' wide receivers produce 130 (21st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Giants create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (10th). Patriots give them up at 8% (6th).
The Patriots lead the series 6–4 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | NYG 15 at NE 33 |
| 2023 · Wk 12 | NE 7 at NYG 10 |
| 2019 · Wk 6 | NYG 14 at NE 35 |
| 2015 · Wk 10 | NE 27 at NYG 26 |
| 2011 · Wk 21 · playoffs | NYG 21 at NE 17 |
2025 records
| Giants | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–13 | 14–3 |
| Division | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Away | 1–8 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.8 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYG off | Favors NYG · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#16 | -0.09#5 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#27 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#18 | 4.9#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 8%#6 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#19 | -0.12#6 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#24 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#10 | -0.09#12 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#22 | 3.9#8 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#16 | 36%#7 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 51%#25 | 55%#8 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#21 | 117#4 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#21 | 55#20 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#24 | 7.5#20 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#5 | 29#11 | 32 | |
Giants: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.