2025
Week 13 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 33–15 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 5:37, 10 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:37NYGJ.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6 M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.76% → 86%
- 2Q2 12:55NYGJ.Dart pass short left to D.Slayton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6% → 12%
- 3Q2 6:28NYG(Field Goal formation) J.Gillan right end to NE 42 for -13 yards (J.Pharms).88% → 92%
- 4Q1 8:34NYGJ.Dart pass short right to D.Slayton to NYG 37 for 11 yards (C.Davis; J.Hawkins).25% → 29%
- 5Q1 7:40NYGJ.Dart sacked at NYG 32 for -5 yards (H.Landry).71% → 75%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Singletary led the Giants at +6.3 EPA (12 carries for 68). D.Maye led the Patriots at +13.3 EPA (24 of 31 for 282).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dart100% | 17/24 | 139 | 1 | 2 | -4.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Singletary51% | 12 | 44% | 68 | 1 | +4.1 |
| T.Jr.49% | 10 | 37% | 36 | -0.5 | |
| J.Dart100% | 4 | 15% | 20 | -0.9 | |
| J.Gillan | 1 | 4% | -13 | -3.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson100% | 8 | 33% | 7 | 34 | -1.4 | |
| T.Johnson89% | 8 | 33% | 3 | 29 | -4.1 | |
| D.Singletary51% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 34 | +2.1 | |
| D.Slayton76% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 41 | 1 | +4.4 |
| I.Hodgins89% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 | |
| T.Jr.49% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -3 | -2.7 |
Defense D.Belton 1 sack, Z.Barnes 1 sack, A.Carter 1 sack
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 24/31 | 282 | 2 | 3 | +11.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson58% | 12 | 41% | 40 | -3.6 | |
| T.Henderson49% | 11 | 38% | 67 | +0.6 | |
| D.Maye100% | 6 | 21% | 12 | +1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry75% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 73 | +5.6 | |
| K.Boutte75% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 35 | 1 | +1.9 |
| S.Diggs48% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 26 | +2.8 | |
| M.Hollins75% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 23 | +0.4 | |
| T.Henderson49% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 19 | -0.6 | |
| R.Stevenson58% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 40 | +0.3 | |
| D.Douglas34% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 33 | +1.4 | |
| K.Williams22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 33 | 1 | +4.8 |
Defense H.III 1 sack, E.Ponder 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 4/5 FG (long 30)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Patriots average 4.3 yards per carry (16th). Giants allow 5.4 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Giants are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 10% of their throws there.
Pressure problem
Patriots take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Giants get home on 7% (17th). League average is 7%.
Success rate
Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 47% (26th).
The Patriots lead the series 6–4 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | NYG 15 at NE 33 |
| 2023 · Wk 12 | NE 7 at NYG 10 |
| 2019 · Wk 6 | NYG 14 at NE 35 |
| 2015 · Wk 10 | NE 27 at NYG 26 |
| 2011 · Wk 21 · playoffs | NYG 21 at NE 17 |
2025 records
| Giants | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–13 | 14–3 |
| Division | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Away | 1–8 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.8 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | +0.08#25 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 47%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 6.0#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 12%#32 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | +0.02#16 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | +0.13#32 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 5.4#32 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 40%#14 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 63%#23 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 152#23 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 47#10 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 6.7#9 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 31#19 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.