2025
Week 13 · Thursday 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Packers offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 31–24; their low point was 43% at Q1 14:26. The Lions had been 56% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 4:15: J.Goff pass incomplete short right to J.Williams (48% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 14:25, 15 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:25GBJ.Love pass deep left to D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.57% → 72%
- 2Q3 10:38GBJ.Love pass deep right to C.Watson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.62% → 76%
- 3Q2 0:31DETJ.Goff pass short left to J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.33% → 43%
- 4Q2 10:28DETJ.Goff pass deep left to T.Kennedy to GB 9 for 23 yards (X.McKinney).29% → 39%
- 5Q4 3:26DETJ.Goff sacked at GB 13 for -9 yards (M.Parsons). GB-D.Wyatt was injured during the play.84% → 94%
- ★Q1 4:15DETJ.Goff pass incomplete short right to J.Williams.turning point48% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +13.3 EPA (18 of 30 for 234). J.Goff led the Lions at +10.8 EPA (20 of 26 for 256).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 18/30 | 234 | 4 | +16.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs54% | 17 | 57% | 83 | -1.2 | |
| J.Love100% | 5 | 17% | 4 | -3.1 | |
| E.Wilson19% | 4 | 13% | 14 | +0.7 | |
| B.Melton | 2 | 7% | 15 | +0.7 | |
| C.Watson73% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 | |
| D.Wicks49% | 1 | 3% | 6 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Watson73% | 10 | 34% | 4 | 80 | 1 | +3.4 |
| D.Wicks49% | 7 | 24% | 6 | 94 | 2 | +11.4 |
| R.Doubs84% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 20 | 1 | +3.8 |
| C.Brooks29% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 9 | -1.0 | |
| J.Jacobs54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| B.Melton | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| J.FitzPatrick24% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| M.Heath17% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| J.Whyle51% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| L.Musgrave59% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 23 | +1.9 |
Defense M.Parsons 2.5 sacks, K.Enagbare 0.5 sacks · Kicking B.McManus 1/1 FG (long 45)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 20/26 | 256 | 2 | 3 | +9.5 | |
| D.Montgomery38% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs70% | 20 | 67% | 68 | -8.0 | |
| D.Montgomery38% | 8 | 27% | 32 | 1 | +1.1 |
| J.Goff100% | 1 | 3% | 24 | +1.3 | |
| J.Williams94% | 1 | 3% | -5 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams94% | 10 | 37% | 7 | 144 | 1 | +7.1 |
| T.Kennedy65% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 36 | +4.5 | |
| J.Gibbs70% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 18 | +1.4 | |
| R.Dwelley75% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| D.Montgomery38% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 16 | +1.0 | |
| I.TeSlaa92% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 35 | 1 | +3.2 |
| A.Firkser24% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| A.Brown6% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking J.Bates 1/1 FG (long 31)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Lions allow -0.01 (14th).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Lions give up 25 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Packers' running backs produce 27 (20th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Packers succeed on 47% of plays (4th) against a defense that allows 42% (9th).
The Packers lead the series 36–19 since 1999. Oct 25, 2026, at Ford Field: the Lions won 20–17. Jared Goff started at quarterback for the Lions and Jordan Love for the Packers; Dan Campbell and Matt LaFleur coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | GB 17 at DET 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | GB 31 at DET 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | DET 13 at GB 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | GB 31 at DET 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | DET 24 at GB 14 |
2025 records
| Packers | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 9–8 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 28.3 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.