2025
Week 13 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 20–16; their low point was 36% at Q2 8:41. The Colts had been 60% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 1:32: C.Stroud pass short left to J.Higgins to IND 30 for 12 yards (J.Jones; K.Moore). Penalty on IND-K.Moore, Defensive Holding, declined (50% → 59%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:49, 20 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:49HOUD.Jones pass incomplete short right to M.Pittman [W.Anderson].69% → 90%
- 2Q3 3:00INDD.Jones pass incomplete deep right to A.Pierce. PENALTY on HOU-C.Bullock, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at HOU 44 - No Play.30% → 46%
- 3Q4 4:53INDB.Direct snap to C.Stover. C.Stover left guard to IND 17 for no gain (Z.Franklin; N.Gallimore). (Virtual Measurement).17% → 31%
- 4Q2 10:19HOUDirect snap to T.Warren. T.Warren FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 10, recovered by IND-J.Taylor at HOU 11. J.Taylor to HOU 11 for no gain (D.Barnett,…45% → 58%
- 5Q4 1:55HOUD.Jones pass incomplete short right to J.Downs [H.To'oTo'o].58% → 69%
- ★Q3 1:32HOUC.Stroud pass short left to J.Higgins to IND 30 for 12 yards (J.Jones; K.Moore). Penalty on IND-K.Moore, Defensive Holding, declined.turning point50% → 59%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
N.Collins led the Texans at +7.7 EPA (5 catches for 98). A.Pierce led the Colts at +6.5 EPA (4 catches for 78).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 22/35 | 276 | 1 | 2 | +7.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks54% | 19 | 56% | 64 | -2.1 | |
| N.Chubb34% | 9 | 26% | 34 | 1 | -0.7 |
| C.Stover41% | 4 | 12% | 3 | -4.3 | |
| N.Collins75% | 1 | 3% | 7 | 1 | +1.5 |
| C.Stroud100% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins75% | 10 | 31% | 5 | 98 | +6.2 | |
| D.Schultz72% | 8 | 25% | 7 | 55 | +1.3 | |
| X.Hutchinson55% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 39 | +0.0 | |
| J.Higgins58% | 5 | 16% | 5 | 65 | +5.9 | |
| C.Stover41% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 16 | +0.6 | |
| J.Noel24% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| W.Marks54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.4 |
Defense S.Rankins 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG (long 43)
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 14/27 | 201 | 2 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor98% | 21 | 91% | 85 | -1.8 | |
| D.Jones100% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 | |
| T.Warren87% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -4.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Downs57% | 6 | 24% | 2 | 44 | +0.3 | |
| J.Taylor98% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 36 | -0.2 | |
| A.Pierce96% | 5 | 20% | 4 | 78 | 1 | +6.5 |
| M.Pittman83% | 4 | 16% | 1 | 13 | -3.5 | |
| T.Warren87% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 22 | 1 | +0.8 |
| A.Ogletree22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 |
Defense C.Bynum 1 INT, C.Wormley 1 sack, A.Adebawore 1 sack · Kicking M.Badgley 1/1 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Colts give up 168 yards a game to wide receivers (31st), against a league average of 140. Texans' wide receivers produce 160 (8th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Texans send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Colts give up 24 yards a game to running backs (4th), against a league average of 32. Texans' running backs produce 21 (29th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Texans succeed on 41% of plays (28th) against a defense that allows 45% (23rd).
The Colts lead the series 34–15–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Sep 27, 2026, at Lucas Oil Stadium: the Colts won 19–17. Daniel Jones started at quarterback for the Colts and C.J. Stroud for the Texans; Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | HOU 17 at IND 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | IND 30 at HOU 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | HOU 20 at IND 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | IND 20 at HOU 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | HOU 29 at IND 27 |
2025 records
| Texans | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 9 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.