2025
Week 18 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 38–30 and were favored the whole way, never below 50%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:17, 19 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:17HOUK.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD71% → 90%
- 2Q4 12:35HOUR.Leonard pass short left intended for T.Warren INTERCEPTED by A.Huzzie (T.Togiai) at IND 33. A.Huzzie to IND 33 for no gain (T.Warren).54% → 70%
- 3Q1 10:45INDR.Leonard pass deep left to A.Pierce for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.20% → 35%
- 4Q2 8:50HOUR.Leonard sacked at IND 17 for -7 yards (D.Hunter). FUMBLES (D.Hunter), touched at IND 16, RECOVERED by HOU-H.To'oTo'o at IND 2.79% → 90%
- 5Q3 13:41INDR.Leonard pass deep middle to A.Pierce to HOU 1 for 53 yards (J.Ingram).17% → 28%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Pierce led the Colts at +10.1 EPA (4 catches for 132). D.Schultz led the Texans at +5.9 EPA (4 catches for 73).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Leonard100% | 21/34 | 270 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1.9 |
| R.Sanchez | 1/1 | 16 | +3.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor52% | 14 | 50% | 26 | -4.3 | |
| D.Giddens31% | 8 | 29% | 30 | -0.3 | |
| R.Leonard100% | 3 | 11% | 21 | 1 | +3.7 |
| A.Abdullah12% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.5 | |
| T.Goodson5% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| J.Downs63% | 1 | 4% | -5 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Warren82% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 26 | -5.1 | |
| A.Pierce68% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 132 | 2 | +10.1 |
| M.Alie-Cox42% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 22 | +2.8 | |
| M.Pittman89% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 11 | -1.6 | |
| J.Downs63% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 61 | -2.8 | |
| A.Abdullah12% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 24 | +2.9 | |
| A.Dulin37% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| J.Taylor52% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 13 | +1.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Grupe 3/3 FG (long 50)
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud65% | 14/23 | 169 | 1 | +4.1 | ||
| D.Mills35% | 3/9 | 36 | -6.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Brooks26% | 13 | 41% | 63 | -0.1 | |
| W.Marks46% | 10 | 31% | 48 | +3.0 | |
| J.Jordan15% | 5 | 16% | 3 | -3.7 | |
| C.Stroud65% | 2 | 6% | 5 | 1 | +0.8 |
| D.Ogunbowale13% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.1 | |
| D.Mills35% | 1 | 3% | 12 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X.Hutchinson79% | 9 | 32% | 5 | 84 | +2.5 | |
| J.Higgins81% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 23 | 1 | -0.3 |
| D.Schultz56% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 73 | +5.9 | |
| W.Marks46% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| D.Ogunbowale13% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 6 | -2.5 | |
| C.Kirk57% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -3 | -1.8 | |
| C.Stover49% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 9 | +0.5 | |
| J.Noel16% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.6 |
Defense A.Huzzie 1 INT, D.Hunter 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 6/6 FG (long 51)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Colts score a touchdown on 68% of red zone trips (3rd). Texans allow 60% (21st).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Colts send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Colts gain +0.06 EPA per dropback (10th). Texans allow -0.22 (1st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Colts succeed on 46% of plays (6th) against a defense that allows 37% (2nd).
The Colts lead the series 34–15–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Sep 27, 2026, at Lucas Oil Stadium: the Colts won 19–17. Daniel Jones started at quarterback for the Colts and C.J. Stroud for the Texans; Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | HOU 17 at IND 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | IND 30 at HOU 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | HOU 20 at IND 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | IND 20 at HOU 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | HOU 29 at IND 27 |
2025 records
| Colts | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.