2025
Week 11 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Chiefs offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 22–19 from as low as 22% (Q4 8:18, down 19–16). The Chiefs had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:05: B.Nix pass deep right to C.Sutton to DEN 41 for 20 yards (B.Cook) (44% → 64%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 11:00, 24 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:00KCP.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to M.Brown [Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.35% → 59%
- 2Q3 3:11KCP.Mahomes pass deep middle to T.Thornton to DEN 11 for 61 yards (J.McMillian) [J.Franklin-Myers].27% → 49%
- 3Q4 2:05DENB.Nix pass deep right to C.Sutton to DEN 41 for 20 yards (B.Cook).turning point44% → 64%
- 4Q4 0:54DENB.Nix pass deep left to T.Franklin to KC 15 for 32 yards (J.Watson).71% → 89%
- 5Q4 10:04KCP.Mahomes pass short middle to T.Kelce for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.56% → 73%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Kelce led the Chiefs at +6.4 EPA (9 catches for 91). P.Bryant led the Broncos at +6.2 EPA (5 catches for 82).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 29/45 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt80% | 13 | 93% | 59 | 1 | +2.0 |
| P.Mahomes100% | 1 | 7% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce79% | 13 | 30% | 9 | 91 | 1 | +6.4 |
| R.Rice76% | 9 | 21% | 6 | 38 | -0.3 | |
| X.Worthy76% | 5 | 12% | 3 | 25 | +0.8 | |
| M.Brown43% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 40 | +2.2 | |
| N.Gray51% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 9 | +0.0 | |
| B.Smith17% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 8 | -2.1 | |
| K.Hunt80% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 3 | -0.8 | |
| T.Thornton23% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 61 | +3.9 | |
| R.Tonyan11% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 | |
| E.Mitchell | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -3.4 |
Defense C.Jones 1 sack, C.Conner 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 2/2 FG (long 31)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 24/37 | 295 | 2 | +5.1 | ||
| R.Harvey61% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey61% | 11 | 52% | 30 | -2.6 | |
| J.McLaughlin13% | 6 | 29% | 19 | 1 | +0.9 |
| B.Nix100% | 3 | 14% | 8 | -1.0 | |
| M.Jr.24% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton92% | 8 | 22% | 4 | 59 | +2.3 | |
| T.Franklin66% | 8 | 22% | 4 | 84 | +2.4 | |
| P.Bryant56% | 6 | 17% | 5 | 82 | +6.2 | |
| E.Engram40% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 33 | +0.4 | |
| R.Harvey61% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 20 | +0.9 | |
| A.Prentice31% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 14 | 0.0 | |
| A.Trautman66% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 | |
| T.Badie13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.McLaughlin13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -5 | -1.4 | |
| B.Nix100% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense J.McMillian 2 sacks and 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 5/5 FG (long 54)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Chiefs' tight ends produce 8.6 (7th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Broncos give up 21 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Chiefs' running backs produce 25 (25th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Chiefs average +0.03 EPA per play (12th). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Chiefs lead the series 31–25 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Empower Field at Mile High: the Broncos won 28–24. Bo Nix started at quarterback for the Broncos and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs; Sean Payton and Andy Reid coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | KC 24 at DEN 28 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | DEN 10 at KC 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DEN 20 at KC 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | KC 19 at DEN 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | KC 0 at DEN 38 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 14–3 |
| Division | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 5–4 | 8–1 |
| Away | 1–7 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.