2025
Week 11 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 23–16; their low point was 30% at Q3 2:34. The game turned for good at Q4 8:40: L.Jackson pass deep middle to Z.Flowers to CLE 47 for 18 yards (C.Schwesinger) (45% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:39, 27 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:39BALDirect snap to M.Andrews. M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.64% → 91%
- 2Q3 4:37CLEL.Jackson pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by C.Schwesinger at CLE 14. C.Schwesinger to CLE 23 for 9 yards (P.Ricard).45% → 63%
- 3Q3 1:02BALD.Henry right guard to CLE 9 for 59 yards (D.Ward).37% → 55%
- 4Q2 10:26CLEC.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13 L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-G.Delpit at BAL 6.24% → 41%
- 5Q2 7:53CLEL.Jackson pass short right intended for K.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by D.Bush at BAL 23. D.Bush for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.38% → 53%
- ★Q4 8:40BALL.Jackson pass deep middle to Z.Flowers to CLE 47 for 18 yards (C.Schwesinger).turning point45% → 58%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Andrews led the Ravens at +6.4 EPA (3 catches for 32). C.Tillman led the Browns at +3.1 EPA (3 catches for 52).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 14/25 | 193 | 2 | 5 | -12.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry54% | 18 | 60% | 103 | 1 | +0.9 |
| K.Mitchell26% | 6 | 20% | 31 | -0.4 | |
| L.Jackson100% | 4 | 13% | 10 | +1.6 | |
| M.Andrews61% | 1 | 3% | 35 | 1 | +5.5 |
| Z.Flowers89% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Andrews61% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 32 | +1.0 | |
| Z.Flowers89% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 78 | +4.2 | |
| D.Hopkins69% | 4 | 16% | 1 | 11 | -2.0 | |
| I.Likely52% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 15 | -1.0 | |
| K.Mitchell26% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 23 | -5.3 | |
| D.Henry54% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 19 | +1.3 | |
| T.Wallace43% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| C.Kolar31% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -5.8 | |
| R.Ali20% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +2.5 |
Defense N.Wiggins 1 INT, K.Noy 1 sack, K.Hamilton 1 sack, K.Martin 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 3/3 FG (long 44)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Sanders51% | 4/16 | 47 | 1 | 2 | -14.4 | |
| D.Gabriel49% | 7/10 | 68 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins60% | 17 | 68% | 59 | -6.0 | |
| S.Sanders51% | 3 | 12% | 16 | +0.3 | |
| D.Gabriel49% | 2 | 8% | 2 | -1.6 | |
| J.Ford31% | 1 | 4% | 2 | 0.0 | |
| D.Sampson11% | 1 | 4% | 19 | +1.7 | |
| I.Bond42% | 1 | 4% | 8 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy82% | 7 | 28% | 3 | 21 | -4.5 | |
| H.Jr.73% | 5 | 20% | 2 | 26 | -1.8 | |
| C.Tillman78% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 52 | +3.1 | |
| D.Njoku65% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 7 | -1.9 | |
| M.Corley29% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 9 | -1.0 | |
| Q.Judkins60% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Sampson11% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| G.Larvadain7% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| I.Bond42% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense M.Garrett 4 sacks, D.Bush 1 INT, C.Schwesinger 1 INT, M.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 3/3 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Ravens average 5.2 yards per carry (1st). Browns allow 4.2 (17th).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Browns give up 110 yards a game to wide receivers (1st), against a league average of 140. Ravens' wide receivers produce 114 (25th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Ravens gain 5.9 yards per play (6th). Browns give up 4.9 (5th), with the league at 5.4.
The Ravens lead the series 39–16 since 1999. Oct 18, 2026, at Huntington Bank Field: the Browns won 13–10. Deshaun Watson started at quarterback for the Browns and Tyler Huntley for the Ravens; Todd Monken and Jesse Minter coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | BAL 10 at CLE 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | BAL 23 at CLE 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | CLE 17 at BAL 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CLE 10 at BAL 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | BAL 24 at CLE 29 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 5–12 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | LLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.