2025
Week 11 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Browns offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Browns, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 23–16; their low point was 30% at Q3 2:34. The game turned for good at Q4 8:40: L.Jackson pass deep middle to Z.Flowers to CLE 47 for 18 yards (C.Schwesinger) (45% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:39, 27 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:39BALDirect snap to M.Andrews. M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.64% → 91%
- 2Q3 4:37CLEL.Jackson pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by C.Schwesinger at CLE 14. C.Schwesinger to CLE 23 for 9 yards (P.Ricard).45% → 63%
- 3Q3 1:02BALD.Henry right guard to CLE 9 for 59 yards (D.Ward).37% → 55%
- 4Q2 10:26CLEC.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13 L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-G.Delpit at BAL 6.24% → 41%
- 5Q2 7:53CLEL.Jackson pass short right intended for K.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by D.Bush at BAL 23. D.Bush for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.38% → 53%
- ★Q4 8:40BALL.Jackson pass deep middle to Z.Flowers to CLE 47 for 18 yards (C.Schwesinger).turning point45% → 58%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Andrews led the Ravens at +6.4 EPA (3 catches for 32). C.Tillman led the Browns at +3.1 EPA (3 catches for 52).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 14/25 | 193 | 2 | 5 | -12.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry54% | 18 | 60% | 103 | 1 | +0.9 |
| K.Mitchell26% | 6 | 20% | 31 | -0.4 | |
| L.Jackson100% | 4 | 13% | 10 | +1.6 | |
| M.Andrews61% | 1 | 3% | 35 | 1 | +5.5 |
| Z.Flowers89% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Andrews61% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 32 | +1.0 | |
| Z.Flowers89% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 78 | +4.2 | |
| D.Hopkins69% | 4 | 16% | 1 | 11 | -2.0 | |
| I.Likely52% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 15 | -1.0 | |
| K.Mitchell26% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 23 | -5.3 | |
| D.Henry54% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 19 | +1.3 | |
| T.Wallace43% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| C.Kolar31% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -5.8 | |
| R.Ali20% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +2.5 |
Defense N.Wiggins 1 INT, K.Noy 1 sack, K.Hamilton 1 sack, K.Martin 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 3/3 FG (long 44)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Sanders51% | 4/16 | 47 | 1 | 2 | -14.4 | |
| D.Gabriel49% | 7/10 | 68 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins60% | 17 | 68% | 59 | -6.0 | |
| S.Sanders51% | 3 | 12% | 16 | +0.3 | |
| D.Gabriel49% | 2 | 8% | 2 | -1.6 | |
| J.Ford31% | 1 | 4% | 2 | 0.0 | |
| D.Sampson11% | 1 | 4% | 19 | +1.7 | |
| I.Bond42% | 1 | 4% | 8 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy82% | 7 | 28% | 3 | 21 | -4.5 | |
| H.Jr.73% | 5 | 20% | 2 | 26 | -1.8 | |
| C.Tillman78% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 52 | +3.1 | |
| D.Njoku65% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 7 | -1.9 | |
| M.Corley29% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 9 | -1.0 | |
| Q.Judkins60% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Sampson11% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| G.Larvadain7% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| I.Bond42% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense M.Garrett 4 sacks, D.Bush 1 INT, C.Schwesinger 1 INT, M.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 3/3 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Ravens give up 43 yards a game to running backs (30th), against a league average of 32. Browns' running backs produce 37 (7th).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Browns send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Browns score a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips (26th). Ravens allow 53% (5th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Browns create explosive plays on 7% of snaps (30th). Ravens give them up at 10% (21st).
The Ravens lead the series 39–16 since 1999. Oct 18, 2026, at Huntington Bank Field: the Browns won 13–10. Deshaun Watson started at quarterback for the Browns and Tyler Huntley for the Ravens; Todd Monken and Jesse Minter coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | BAL 10 at CLE 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | BAL 23 at CLE 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | CLE 17 at BAL 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CLE 10 at BAL 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | BAL 24 at CLE 29 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 5–12 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | LLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.19#31 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#32 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#30 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.29#32 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#25 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#25 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#30 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#29 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#26 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 86#32 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 63#6 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.9#2 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#7 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.