2025
Week 11 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Buccaneers offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 44–32; their low point was 41% at Q3 7:26. The game turned for good at Q3 4:05: B.Mayfield pass short right intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by C.Bishop at TB 37. C.Bishop to TB 25 for 12 yards (G.Barton) (48% → 67%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:45, 22 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:45BUFJ.Allen pass short left to Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.55% → 77%
- 2Q3 4:05TBB.Mayfield pass short right intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by C.Bishop at TB 37. C.Bishop to TB 25 for 12 yards (G.Barton).turning point48% → 67%
- 3Q4 13:45TBB.Mayfield pass short right to S.Tucker for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 48%
- 4Q2 5:46TBS.Tucker right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26% → 44%
- 5Q2 9:01BUFJ.Allen pass deep left to T.Shavers for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.63% → 78%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Tucker led the Buccaneers at +7.3 EPA (19 carries for 106). J.Allen led the Bills at +16.7 EPA (19 of 30 for 317).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield99% | 16/28 | 173 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Tucker44% | 19 | 49% | 106 | 2 | +3.4 |
| R.White60% | 10 | 26% | 51 | +2.6 | |
| B.Mayfield99% | 5 | 13% | 39 | 1 | +8.3 |
| T.Johnson83% | 3 | 8% | 0 | -2.0 | |
| T.Bridgewater1% | 1 | 3% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| S.Shepard66% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka94% | 9 | 33% | 5 | 40 | -4.4 | |
| S.Shepard66% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 54 | +1.2 | |
| C.Otton97% | 5 | 19% | 2 | 28 | -0.7 | |
| R.White60% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 11 | -0.5 | |
| T.Johnson83% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 6 | -2.4 | |
| S.Tucker44% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 34 | 1 | +3.9 |
Defense S.Dennis 1 INT, J.Parrish 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG (long 24)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 19/30 | 317 | 3 | 2 | +12.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook66% | 16 | 70% | 48 | -4.4 | |
| J.Allen100% | 6 | 26% | 40 | 3 | +4.2 |
| T.Johnson32% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Palmer50% | 5 | 17% | 2 | 17 | -5.7 | |
| T.Shavers54% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 90 | 1 | +4.8 |
| G.Davis41% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 40 | +4.5 | |
| C.Samuel50% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 19 | +1.9 | |
| D.Knox77% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 23 | -0.4 | |
| J.Cook66% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 66 | 1 | +5.2 |
| K.Shakir54% | 3 | 10% | 1 | -3 | -2.3 | |
| T.Johnson32% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 61 | 1 | +6.4 |
| M.Hardman7% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| K.Latu11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.4 |
Defense C.Bishop 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack · Kicking M.Prater 1/1 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Buccaneers
Buccaneers convert 42% of third downs (12th). Bills allow 43% (24th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 4.6 targets a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 7.3. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 5.1 (32nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Buccaneers average -0.01 EPA per play (19th). Bills allow -0.01 (13th). League average is +0.01.
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Bills have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 11 | TB 32 at BUF 44 |
| 2023 · Wk 8 | TB 18 at BUF 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 14 · OT | BUF 27 at TB 33 |
| 2017 · Wk 7 | TB 27 at BUF 30 |
| 2013 · Wk 14 | BUF 6 at TB 27 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 4–4 | 7–2 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.