2025
Week 11 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Packers offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 27–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 5:56, 19 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 5:56GBJ.Love pass deep left to S.Williams to NYG 20 for 33 yards (C.Flott) [B.Burns].56% → 75%
- 2Q4 0:40GBJ.Winston pass deep left intended for J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by E.Williams at GB -5. Touchback.85% → 99%
- 3Q4 4:07GBJ.Love pass deep right to C.Watson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.73% → 87%
- 4Q3 2:02GBJ.Winston sacked at GB 17 for -7 yards (sack split by M.Parsons and I.McDuffie).79% → 88%
- 5Q4 9:02NYGJ.Winston pass short middle to I.Hodgins to GB 9 for 13 yards (K.Nixon).17% → 26%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +9.8 EPA (13 of 24 for 174). J.Winston led the Giants at +8.4 EPA (19 of 29 for 201).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love87% | 13/24 | 174 | 2 | 2 | +10.4 | |
| M.Willis13% | 2/2 | 6 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson71% | 11 | 48% | 40 | 1 | +0.2 |
| J.Jacobs22% | 7 | 30% | 40 | +2.6 | |
| J.Love87% | 2 | 9% | 7 | -0.6 | |
| B.Melton | 1 | 4% | 17 | +0.9 | |
| M.Willis13% | 1 | 4% | 16 | +2.2 | |
| C.Brooks9% | 1 | 4% | 8 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Doubs76% | 8 | 32% | 4 | 53 | +1.9 | |
| C.Watson78% | 5 | 20% | 4 | 46 | 2 | +5.9 |
| M.Golden35% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 24 | +0.3 | |
| D.Wicks56% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 9 | +0.2 | |
| L.Musgrave35% | 2 | 8% | 1 | -1 | -1.5 | |
| J.Jacobs22% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| J.FitzPatrick64% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.8 | |
| J.Whyle36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1.2 |
| E.Wilson71% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +1.9 | |
| S.Williams4% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 33 | +3.3 |
Defense M.Parsons 1.5 sacks, E.Williams 1 INT, I.McDuffie 0.5 sacks
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Winston100% | 19/29 | 201 | 1 | 2 | +6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jr.51% | 19 | 50% | 88 | +0.7 | |
| D.Singletary49% | 16 | 42% | 44 | 2 | +1.2 |
| J.Winston100% | 3 | 8% | 10 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson97% | 9 | 31% | 4 | 36 | -1.9 | |
| I.Hodgins79% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 57 | +7.6 | |
| J.Hyatt61% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 18 | -3.0 | |
| T.Jr.51% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 51 | +5.3 | |
| T.Johnson92% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 36 | +3.8 | |
| D.Singletary49% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| D.Bellinger47% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense B.Burns 2 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Giants allow +0.02 (16th).
Deep left is open
Giants are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Packers send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Giants give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (9th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Packers gain 5.7 yards per play (9th). Giants give up 6.0 (29th), with the league at 5.4.
The Packers lead the series 8–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 11 | GB 27 at NYG 20 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 | GB 22 at NYG 24 |
| 2022 · Wk 5 | NYG 27 at GB 22 |
| 2019 · Wk 13 | GB 31 at NYG 13 |
| 2016 · Wk 18 · playoffs | NYG 13 at GB 38 |
2025 records
| Packers | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 4–13 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 1–8 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | LLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 22.4 – 25.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | +0.08#25 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 47%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 6.0#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 12%#32 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | +0.02#16 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | +0.13#32 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 5.4#32 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 40%#14 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 63%#23 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 152#23 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 47#10 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 6.7#9 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 31#19 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.