2025
Week 11 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Giants offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Giants, 18 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 27–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 5:56, 19 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 5:56GBJ.Love pass deep left to S.Williams to NYG 20 for 33 yards (C.Flott) [B.Burns].56% → 75%
- 2Q4 0:40GBJ.Winston pass deep left intended for J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by E.Williams at GB -5. Touchback.85% → 99%
- 3Q4 4:07GBJ.Love pass deep right to C.Watson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.73% → 87%
- 4Q3 2:02GBJ.Winston sacked at GB 17 for -7 yards (sack split by M.Parsons and I.McDuffie).79% → 88%
- 5Q4 9:02NYGJ.Winston pass short middle to I.Hodgins to GB 9 for 13 yards (K.Nixon).17% → 26%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +9.8 EPA (13 of 24 for 174). J.Winston led the Giants at +8.4 EPA (19 of 29 for 201).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love87% | 13/24 | 174 | 2 | 2 | +10.4 | |
| M.Willis13% | 2/2 | 6 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson71% | 11 | 48% | 40 | 1 | +0.2 |
| J.Jacobs22% | 7 | 30% | 40 | +2.6 | |
| J.Love87% | 2 | 9% | 7 | -0.6 | |
| B.Melton | 1 | 4% | 17 | +0.9 | |
| M.Willis13% | 1 | 4% | 16 | +2.2 | |
| C.Brooks9% | 1 | 4% | 8 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Doubs76% | 8 | 32% | 4 | 53 | +1.9 | |
| C.Watson78% | 5 | 20% | 4 | 46 | 2 | +5.9 |
| M.Golden35% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 24 | +0.3 | |
| D.Wicks56% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 9 | +0.2 | |
| L.Musgrave35% | 2 | 8% | 1 | -1 | -1.5 | |
| J.Jacobs22% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| J.FitzPatrick64% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.8 | |
| J.Whyle36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1.2 |
| E.Wilson71% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +1.9 | |
| S.Williams4% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 33 | +3.3 |
Defense M.Parsons 1.5 sacks, E.Williams 1 INT, I.McDuffie 0.5 sacks
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Winston100% | 19/29 | 201 | 1 | 2 | +6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jr.51% | 19 | 50% | 88 | +0.7 | |
| D.Singletary49% | 16 | 42% | 44 | 2 | +1.2 |
| J.Winston100% | 3 | 8% | 10 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson97% | 9 | 31% | 4 | 36 | -1.9 | |
| I.Hodgins79% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 57 | +7.6 | |
| J.Hyatt61% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 18 | -3.0 | |
| T.Jr.51% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 51 | +5.3 | |
| T.Johnson92% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 36 | +3.8 | |
| D.Singletary49% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| D.Bellinger47% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense B.Burns 2 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Giants' run game is 10th in EPA per carry (-0.03). Packers allow -0.05 (17th).
Deep right is open
Packers are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.52 EPA per attempt. Giants send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Packers give up 50 yards a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 53. Giants' tight ends produce 48 (21st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Giants create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (10th). Packers give them up at 8% (5th).
The Packers lead the series 8–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 11 | GB 27 at NYG 20 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 | GB 22 at NYG 24 |
| 2022 · Wk 5 | NYG 27 at GB 22 |
| 2019 · Wk 13 | GB 31 at NYG 13 |
| 2016 · Wk 18 · playoffs | NYG 13 at GB 38 |
2025 records
| Packers | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 4–13 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 1–8 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | LLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 22.4 – 25.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYG off | Favors NYG · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#16 | +0.04#22 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#27 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#18 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 8%#5 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#19 | +0.09#23 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#24 | 6%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#10 | -0.05#17 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#22 | 4.1#13 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#16 | 42%#20 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 51%#25 | 59%#16 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#21 | 136#15 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#21 | 50#12 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#24 | 8.2#24 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#5 | 29#12 | 32 | |
Giants: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.