2025
Week 11 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 17 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 16–13; their low point was 44% at Q3 10:45. The game turned for good at Q3 9:32: D.Mills pass short middle to N.Collins to TEN 28 for 14 yards (K.Winston) (47% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:50, 23 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:50HOUD.Mills pass deep right to N.Collins pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (A.Hooker).58% → 81%
- 2Q1 8:24TEND.Mills sacked at TEN 12 for -11 yards (C.Barton).23% → 35%
- 3Q4 1:55TENC.Ward pass deep left to C.Okonkwo ran ob at HOU 7 for 39 yards [D.Hunter].9% → 21%
- 4Q4 1:40TENC.Ward pass short right to V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21% → 32%
- 5Q1 0:55TENJ.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD32% → 42%
- ★Q3 9:32HOUD.Mills pass short middle to N.Collins to TEN 28 for 14 yards (K.Winston).turning point47% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
N.Collins led the Texans at +7.8 EPA (9 catches for 92). C.Okonkwo led the Titans at +4.5 EPA (3 catches for 56).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Mills100% | 26/41 | 274 | 1 | 4 | -0.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks66% | 18 | 78% | 44 | -5.0 | |
| N.Chubb26% | 3 | 13% | 17 | +0.8 | |
| D.Mills100% | 2 | 9% | 14 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins84% | 10 | 25% | 9 | 92 | 1 | +7.8 |
| D.Schultz69% | 9 | 23% | 6 | 51 | +0.4 | |
| J.Higgins61% | 7 | 18% | 4 | 55 | +4.6 | |
| X.Hutchinson53% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 42 | +1.6 | |
| C.Kirk51% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 6 | -1.6 | |
| N.Chubb26% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| D.Ogunbowale7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | -0.2 | |
| J.Noel26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | -0.1 | |
| W.Marks66% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 |
Defense D.Hunter 1.5 sacks, W.Jr. 1 sack, T.Togiai 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Wright 3/3 FG (long 43)
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 24/37 | 194 | 1 | 3 | -2.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard49% | 10 | 59% | 22 | -4.0 | |
| T.Spears53% | 4 | 24% | 3 | -3.0 | |
| C.Ward100% | 3 | 18% | 33 | +2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V.Jefferson92% | 7 | 19% | 3 | 22 | 1 | -1.5 |
| E.Ayomanor85% | 6 | 17% | 2 | 11 | -2.0 | |
| T.Spears53% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 31 | +1.2 | |
| G.Helm64% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 29 | +1.3 | |
| T.Pollard49% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| M.Kinsey56% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 14 | +1.2 | |
| C.Okonkwo68% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 56 | +4.5 | |
| C.Dike27% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 14 | +1.0 | |
| C.Ridley2% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +0.8 |
Defense A.Key 1.5 sacks, J.Simmons 1 sack, C.Barton 1 sack, J.Harrell 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Slye 2/2 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Titans give up 166 yards a game to wide receivers (28th), against a league average of 140. Texans' wide receivers produce 160 (8th).
Deep middle is open
Titans are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Texans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Titans give up 27 yards a game to running backs (7th), against a league average of 32. Texans' running backs produce 21 (29th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Texans create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (25th). Titans give them up at 11% (22nd).
The Texans lead the series 25–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 4. Oct 11, 2026, at Nissan Stadium: the Texans won 26–3. Cam Ward started at quarterback for the Titans and C.J. Stroud for the Texans; Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | HOU 26 at TEN 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | HOU 16 at TEN 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 | TEN 0 at HOU 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | HOU 23 at TEN 14 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | TEN 32 at HOU 27 |
2025 records
| Texans | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–2 | 1–8 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WLWLL |
| Streak | Won 9 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 16.7 – 28.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | +0.10#28 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 45%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 6.0#28 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 11%#22 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | +0.17#29 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.02#22 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 4.2#18 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 42%#19 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 67%#31 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 166#28 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 56#21 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 7.1#15 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 27#7 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.