DOWN X DOWN › week 11 › Chargers at Jaguars

Season over · final

2025

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Week 11 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium

Chargers offensevsJaguars defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

LAC offense JAX offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · LAC 6 · JAX 35

The Jaguars won 35–6; their low point was 30% at Q1 4:20. The Chargers had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 8:15: C.Dicker kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to JAX 7. L.Allen MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 8. L.Allen to JAX 40 for 32 yards (T.Tuipulotu; K.Williamson) (50% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 12:54, 13 points for the Chargers.

At kickoffLAC 61%LAC by 3 on the line

JAX low point30%Q1 4:20 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%5times the favorite changed

Biggest swing13 ptsLAC · Q2 12:54

JAX wins50%LAC wins

12345Turning pointJAX low 30%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 12:54JAXT.Lawrence pass short left intended for T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by D.Jackson at JAX 42. D.Jackson pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (T.Patrick).41% → 54%+13 LAC
2Q2 8:56LACJ.Herbert sacked at JAX 28 for -14 yards (J.Hines-Allen).43% → 52%+9 JAX
3Q2 2:45LACJ.Herbert pass deep right to K.Allen to JAX 45 for 30 yards (M.Brown).29% → 37%+9 LAC
4Q1 8:17JAXT.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to J.Meyers.54% → 62%+8 LAC
5Q3 11:32JAXT.Lawrence pass short left to J.Meyers to LAC 23 for 21 yards (E.Molden).73% → 80%+8 JAX
★Q2 8:15JAXC.Dicker kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to JAX 7. L.Allen MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 8. L.Allen to JAX 40 for 32 yards (T.Tuipulotu; K.Williamson).turning point50% → 52%+3 JAX

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 11

K.Allen led the Chargers at +2.0 EPA (4 catches for 53). J.Meyers led the Jaguars at +5.0 EPA (5 catches for 64).

Chargers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Herbert73%	10/18	81		1	2	-14.2
T.Lance27%	3/8	37			1	-7.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
K.Vidal52%	5	31%	13	-0.2
T.Williams38%	3	19%	-1	-1.9
J.Herbert73%	3	19%	21	+1.0
T.Lance27%	3	19%	1	-0.2
A.Johnson8%	2	13%	8	-0.1

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
K.Allen75%	6	25%	4	53	+2.0
O.II88%	5	21%	2	41	-0.8
L.McConkey62%	4	17%	3	13	-7.9
Q.Johnston90%	3	13%	0	0	-1.3
K.Vidal52%	2	8%	2	-1	-1.7
T.Williams38%	1	4%	1	0	-2.8
D.Davis10%	1	4%	0	0	-0.6
A.Johnson8%	1	4%	0	0	-0.7
T.Harris52%	1	4%	1	12	+0.5

Defense D.Jackson 1 INT · Kicking C.Dicker 2/2 FG (long 46)

Jaguars

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Lawrence89%	14/22	153	1	1		+2.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Etienne49%	19	40%	73	2	+2.5
B.Tuten32%	15	32%	74	1	+2.8
L.Jr.20%	8	17%	36		-1.7
T.Lawrence89%	5	11%	9	1	-0.5

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Meyers65%	6	27%	5	64		+5.0
T.Patrick58%	4	18%	3	20	1	-2.4
J.Mundt58%	3	14%	2	25		+1.4
Q.Morris70%	3	14%	1	11		-3.9
T.Etienne49%	2	9%	0	0		-1.3
P.Washington76%	2	9%	2	20		+1.8
D.Brown27%	1	5%	0	0		-0.5
A.Trammell21%	1	5%	1	13		+2.2

Defense A.Johnson 1 INT, A.Armstead 1 sack, J.Hines-Allen 1 sack, T.Walker 0.5 sacks

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Third downs favor Chargers

Chargers convert 45% of third downs (5th). Jaguars allow 42% (21st).

Opportunity

Deep right is open

Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Passing lanes are closed

Chargers gain -0.07 EPA per dropback (26th). Jaguars allow -0.12 (4th).

Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Chargers succeed on 43% of plays (22nd) against a defense that allows 42% (8th).

The series · Chargers and Jaguars since 1999, and this season's records15 meetings

The Chargers lead the series 9–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). The Jaguars have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.

Chargers at home5–1the Chargers' record

In Jacksonville4–5the Chargers' record

Most pointsChargers 45 · Jaguars 382019 · 2022

Biggest winChargers by 35 · Jaguars by 292019 · 2025

Playoffs0–1the Chargers' record

The last 5

2025 · Wk 11	LAC 6 at JAX 35
2022 · Wk 19 · playoffs	LAC 30 at JAX 31
2022 · Wk 3	JAX 38 at LAC 10
2020 · Wk 7	JAX 29 at LAC 39
2019 · Wk 14	LAC 45 at JAX 10

2025 records

	Chargers	Jaguars
Overall	11–6	13–4
Division	5–1	5–1
Conference	8–4	10–2
Other conference	3–2	3–2
Home	6–3	7–2
Away	5–3	6–2
Last 5	WWWLL	WWWWW
Streak	Lost 2	Won 8
Points a game	21.6 – 20.0	27.9 – 19.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · LAC offense against JAX defense

Stat	LAC off	JAX def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.04#25	-0.09#6	+0.01
Success rate	43%#22	42%#8	44%
Yards per play	5.2#22	5.1#8	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#21	8%#3	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.07#26	-0.12#4	+0.01
Sack rate	10%#28	5%#30	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.08#23	-0.07#16	-0.05
Yards per carry	3.9#25	3.7#4	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	45%#5	42%#21	40%
Red zone TD rate	47%#29	64%#24	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	155#10	143#18	140
TE yards per game	51#18	59#23	53
TE targets per game	5.8#26	8.7#31	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	23#27	32#20	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Chargers: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.527% of throws

-0.332% of throws

+0.337% of throws

Short

+0.1527% of throws

+0.0820% of throws

-0.0337% of throws

Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.1042 throws

-0.2133 throws

+0.4247 throws