2025
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 31–27 from as low as 13% (Q4 5:12, down 27–24). The game turned for good at Q4 1:49: J.Browning pass short middle to C.Brown to JAX 37 for 5 yards (J.Lewis) (45% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:19, 26 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:19CINJ.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 95%
- 2Q4 5:22JAXJ.Browning pass short middle intended for A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by D.Lloyd at CIN 34. D.Lloyd to CIN 12 for 22 yards (C.Brown).64% → 87%
- 3Q3 2:46CINJ.Browning pass deep right to T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.33% → 53%
- 4Q4 1:54CINJ.Browning pass incomplete deep right to A.Iosivas (T.Hunter). PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at CIN 33…25% → 45%
- 5Q1 4:57CINT.Lawrence pass short left intended for T.Hunter INTERCEPTED by D.Hill [T.Hendrickson] at CIN -3. Touchback.34% → 47%
- ★Q4 1:49CINJ.Browning pass short middle to C.Brown to JAX 37 for 5 yards (J.Lewis).turning point45% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Washington led the Jaguars at +7.2 EPA (5 catches for 76). J.Chase led the Bengals at +11.1 EPA (14 catches for 165).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 24/42 | 271 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +5.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne66% | 14 | 52% | 71 | -0.6 | |
| B.Tuten25% | 8 | 30% | 42 | +1.9 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 2 | 7% | 4 | -1.2 | |
| L.Jr.15% | 2 | 7% | 13 | +0.7 | |
| D.Brown80% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Jr.94% | 12 | 29% | 4 | 49 | -7.1 | |
| D.Brown80% | 7 | 17% | 5 | 57 | 1 | +5.4 |
| T.Hunter59% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 22 | -4.9 | |
| P.Washington24% | 5 | 12% | 5 | 76 | +7.2 | |
| B.Strange90% | 5 | 12% | 3 | 17 | +0.1 | |
| T.Etienne66% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 18 | 1 | +1.3 |
| B.Tuten25% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 32 | 1 | +4.1 |
| T.Patrick17% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense E.Murray 1 INT, A.Wingard 1 INT, D.Lloyd 1 INT, A.Armstead 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/2 FG (long 42)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Browning70% | 21/32 | 241 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2.0 |
| J.Burrow30% | 7/13 | 76 | 1 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown71% | 16 | 94% | 47 | -1.2 | |
| J.Browning70% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase96% | 16 | 37% | 14 | 165 | 1 | +11.1 |
| T.Higgins87% | 8 | 19% | 3 | 56 | 1 | +3.0 |
| A.Iosivas84% | 5 | 12% | 1 | 12 | -8.5 | |
| M.Gesicki52% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 18 | -4.5 | |
| N.Fant25% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 28 | 0.0 | |
| C.Brown71% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 18 | +2.1 | |
| D.Sample41% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 7 | -1.0 | |
| M.Tinsley14% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 13 | 1 | +1.7 |
Defense D.Hill 1 INT, J.Battle 1 INT, T.Hendrickson 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 31)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Jaguars gain +0.06 EPA per dropback (11th). Bengals allow +0.16 (28th).
Deep left is open
Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 11% of their throws there.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Jaguars' wide receivers produce 164 (6th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jaguars succeed on 45% of plays (13th) against a defense that allows 48% (28th).
The Jaguars lead the series 10–9 since 1999. Oct 4, 2026, at Paycor Stadium: the Jaguars won 22–17. Joe Burrow started at quarterback for the Bengals and Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars; Zac Taylor and Liam Coen coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | JAX 22 at CIN 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | JAX 27 at CIN 31 |
| 2023 · Wk 13 · OT | CIN 34 at JAX 31 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | JAX 21 at CIN 24 |
| 2020 · Wk 4 | JAX 25 at CIN 33 |
2025 records
| Jaguars | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13–4 | 6–11 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Away | 6–2 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 8 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 27.9 – 19.8 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | +0.13#29 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 48%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 12%#30 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | +0.16#28 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | +0.06#31 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 5.2#31 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 44%#26 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 65%#25 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 116#3 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 85#32 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 9.7#32 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 43#29 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.