2025
Week 2 · Monday 7:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 20–19 from as low as 12% (Q4 1:24, down 19–14). The Texans had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:09: R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN (50% → 82%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:09TBR.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point50% → 82%
- 2Q4 0:06HOUC.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to HOU 4. T.Smith to HOU 33 for 29 yards (J.Bullock).73% → 100%
- 3Q4 6:23TBR.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by J.Johnson, RECOVERED by HOU-J.Watson at TB 36. J.Watson to TB 35 for 1 yard (K.Merriweather).29% → 49%
- 4Q4 11:19HOUC.Stroud pass incomplete short left to N.Collins.48% → 64%
- 5Q4 4:00TBB.Mayfield sacked at TB 29 for -8 yards (W.Anderson).41% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +4.7 EPA (25 of 38 for 215). W.Marks led the Texans at +2.5 EPA (3 carries for 14).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 25/38 | 215 | 2 | 4 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving71% | 17 | 57% | 71 | 0.0 | |
| R.White31% | 10 | 33% | 65 | 1 | +5.2 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 3 | 10% | 33 | +5.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Evans79% | 11 | 31% | 5 | 56 | -0.1 | |
| E.Egbuka92% | 7 | 19% | 4 | 29 | 1 | +1.9 |
| B.Irving71% | 6 | 17% | 6 | 50 | +2.3 | |
| S.Shepard75% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 34 | +2.5 | |
| C.Otton91% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 25 | +1.1 | |
| R.White31% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 1 | -1.2 | |
| R.Miller22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 20 | 1 | +2.8 |
| P.Durham21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense G.Gaines 1 sack, T.Smith 1 sack, L.David 0.5 sacks, E.Roberts 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.McLaughlin 0/1 FG
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 13/24 | 207 | 1 | 3 | -4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Chubb53% | 12 | 63% | 43 | 1 | -0.2 |
| C.Stroud100% | 4 | 21% | 27 | +1.9 | |
| W.Marks27% | 3 | 16% | 14 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins90% | 9 | 39% | 3 | 52 | 1 | -4.0 |
| D.Schultz59% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 29 | +1.2 | |
| X.Hutchinson57% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 29 | +2.2 | |
| J.Watson41% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| N.Chubb53% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 29 | +1.9 | |
| H.Bryant39% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| J.Higgins43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 28 | +1.6 | |
| W.Marks27% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 37 | +2.8 |
Defense D.Hunter 2 sacks, S.Rankins 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG (long 53)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Texans give up 31 yards a game to running backs (18th), against a league average of 32. Buccaneers' running backs produce 31 (13th).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Texans give up 43 yards a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 53. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 35 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (15th). Texans give them up at 8% (8th).
The Texans lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | TB 20 at HOU 19 |
| 2023 · Wk 9 | TB 37 at HOU 39 |
| 2019 · Wk 16 | HOU 23 at TB 20 |
| 2015 · Wk 3 | TB 9 at HOU 19 |
| 2011 · Wk 10 | HOU 37 at TB 9 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 7–2 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.