2025
Week 2 · Monday 7:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 20–19 from as low as 12% (Q4 1:24, down 19–14). The Texans had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:09: R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN (50% → 82%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:09TBR.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point50% → 82%
- 2Q4 0:06TBC.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to HOU 4. T.Smith to HOU 33 for 29 yards (J.Bullock).73% → 100%
- 3Q4 6:23HOUR.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by J.Johnson, RECOVERED by HOU-J.Watson at TB 36. J.Watson to TB 35 for 1 yard (K.Merriweather).29% → 49%
- 4Q4 11:19TBC.Stroud pass incomplete short left to N.Collins.48% → 64%
- 5Q4 4:00HOUB.Mayfield sacked at TB 29 for -8 yards (W.Anderson).41% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +4.7 EPA (25 of 38 for 215). W.Marks led the Texans at +2.5 EPA (3 carries for 14).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 25/38 | 215 | 2 | 4 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving71% | 17 | 57% | 71 | 0.0 | |
| R.White31% | 10 | 33% | 65 | 1 | +5.2 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 3 | 10% | 33 | +5.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Evans79% | 11 | 31% | 5 | 56 | -0.1 | |
| E.Egbuka92% | 7 | 19% | 4 | 29 | 1 | +1.9 |
| B.Irving71% | 6 | 17% | 6 | 50 | +2.3 | |
| S.Shepard75% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 34 | +2.5 | |
| C.Otton91% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 25 | +1.1 | |
| R.White31% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 1 | -1.2 | |
| R.Miller22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 20 | 1 | +2.8 |
| P.Durham21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense G.Gaines 1 sack, T.Smith 1 sack, L.David 0.5 sacks, E.Roberts 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.McLaughlin 0/1 FG
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 13/24 | 207 | 1 | 3 | -4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Chubb53% | 12 | 63% | 43 | 1 | -0.2 |
| C.Stroud100% | 4 | 21% | 27 | +1.9 | |
| W.Marks27% | 3 | 16% | 14 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins90% | 9 | 39% | 3 | 52 | 1 | -4.0 |
| D.Schultz59% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 29 | +1.2 | |
| X.Hutchinson57% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 29 | +2.2 | |
| J.Watson41% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| N.Chubb53% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 29 | +1.9 | |
| H.Bryant39% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| J.Higgins43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 28 | +1.6 | |
| W.Marks27% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 37 | +2.8 |
Defense D.Hunter 2 sacks, S.Rankins 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG (long 53)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Buccaneers give up 148 yards a game to wide receivers (22nd), against a league average of 140. Texans' wide receivers produce 160 (8th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Texans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Texans' run game is 30th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Buccaneers allow -0.11 (5th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Texans gain 5.1 yards per play (25th). Buccaneers give up 5.8 (24th), with the league at 5.4.
The Texans lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | TB 20 at HOU 19 |
| 2023 · Wk 9 | TB 37 at HOU 39 |
| 2019 · Wk 16 | HOU 23 at TB 20 |
| 2015 · Wk 3 | TB 9 at HOU 19 |
| 2011 · Wk 10 | HOU 37 at TB 9 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 7–2 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.