2025
Week 2 · Monday 10:00 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Chargers offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 17 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 20–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 60%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:00, 11 points for the Chargers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 2:00LACJ.Herbert pass deep left to Q.Johnston for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.79% → 90%
- 2Q1 11:46LVG.Smith pass short middle to D.Thornton to LAC 40 for 20 yards (A.Gilman).30% → 38%
- 3Q1 14:53LVG.Smith pass short right intended for T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by D.Henley (A.Gilman) at LV 33. D.Henley to LV 25 for 8 yards (M.Mayer).66% → 73%
- 4Q1 9:53LVG.Smith sacked at LAC 36 for -10 yards (K.Mack).64% → 71%
- 5Q1 1:54LACJ.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LV 24 for 9 yards (I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-I.Pola-Mao, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at LV 24.69% → 76%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Allen led the Chargers at +5.7 EPA (5 catches for 61). B.Bowers led the Raiders at +1.3 EPA (5 catches for 38).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 19/27 | 242 | 2 | 2 | +10.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 9 | 35% | 31 | -10.2 | |
| N.Harris34% | 8 | 31% | 28 | -0.8 | |
| O.Hampton62% | 8 | 31% | 24 | -3.4 | |
| Q.Johnston76% | 1 | 4% | -2 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Allen55% | 7 | 26% | 5 | 61 | 1 | +5.7 |
| Q.Johnston76% | 7 | 26% | 3 | 71 | 1 | +2.2 |
| L.McConkey74% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 48 | +3.1 | |
| T.Harris31% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 34 | +1.6 | |
| N.Harris34% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 20 | +1.4 | |
| O.Hampton62% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 1 | -1.4 | |
| W.Dissly40% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | 0.0 |
Defense D.Henley 1 sack and 1 INT, T.Jefferson 1 INT, D.Jackson 1 INT, K.Mack 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 2/2 FG (long 38)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 24/43 | 180 | 3 | 3 | -23.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty56% | 11 | 58% | 43 | -1.0 | |
| G.Smith100% | 5 | 26% | 20 | +1.1 | |
| Z.White30% | 2 | 11% | -2 | -2.8 | |
| T.Tucker91% | 1 | 5% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers93% | 12 | 28% | 6 | 68 | -3.5 | |
| T.Tucker91% | 8 | 19% | 3 | 12 | -9.0 | |
| B.Bowers77% | 8 | 19% | 5 | 38 | +1.3 | |
| A.Jeanty56% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 1 | -3.2 | |
| D.Jr.81% | 4 | 9% | 1 | 20 | -0.8 | |
| Z.White30% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 15 | -0.7 | |
| M.Mayer34% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 9 | -0.1 | |
| D.Laube17% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 17 | +0.5 |
Defense J.Laulu 2 sacks · Kicking D.Carlson 3/3 FG (long 54)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Chargers
Chargers convert 45% of third downs (5th). Raiders allow 47% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Raiders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.56 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Raiders give up 5.7 targets a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 7.3. Chargers' tight ends produce 5.8 (26th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Chargers succeed on 43% of plays (22nd) against a defense that allows 45% (21st).
The Chargers lead the series 33–22 since 1999. Sep 20, 2026, at SoFi Stadium: the Raiders won 26–14. Justin Herbert started at quarterback for the Chargers and Kirk Cousins for the Raiders; Jim Harbaugh and Klint Kubliak coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | LV 26 at LAC 14 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | LV 14 at LAC 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | LAC 20 at LV 9 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | LAC 34 at LV 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | LV 10 at LAC 22 |
2025 records
| Chargers | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 0–5 |
| Home | 6–3 | 2–7 |
| Away | 5–3 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 21.6 – 20.0 | 14.2 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#25 | +0.03#19 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#22 | 45%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#22 | 5.2#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 8%#7 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#26 | +0.08#22 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 7%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#23 | -0.07#14 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#25 | 4.0#10 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#5 | 47%#31 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#29 | 59%#18 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#10 | 147#21 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#18 | 39#3 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 5.7#3 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#27 | 28#10 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.