2025
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 33–27 from as low as 23% (Q3 6:13, down 17–15). The Dolphins had been 52% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 7:18: R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN (29% → 61%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 7:18NER.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point29% → 61%
- 2Q4 7:39NEB.Baringer punts 65 yards to MIA 26 M.Washington for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.48% → 70%
- 3Q3 14:07MIAT.Tagovailoa pass deep left to T.Hill to NE 27 for 47 yards (C.Woodson).41% → 61%
- 4Q3 1:49NED.Maye pass deep right to R.Stevenson to MIA 21 for 55 yards (J.Brooks).28% → 46%
- 5Q4 0:53MIAT.Tagovailoa sacked at NE 37 for -9 yards (M.Williams).84% → 99%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +17.0 EPA (19 of 23 for 230). T.Tagovailoa led the Dolphins at +9.9 EPA (26 of 32 for 315).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 19/23 | 230 | 2 | 3 | +15.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson65% | 11 | 38% | 54 | +1.3 | |
| D.Maye100% | 10 | 34% | 31 | 1 | +2.0 |
| A.Gibson17% | 5 | 17% | 27 | +0.2 | |
| T.Henderson32% | 3 | 10% | 10 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs52% | 5 | 22% | 4 | 32 | +3.4 | |
| R.Stevenson65% | 5 | 22% | 5 | 88 | +6.8 | |
| A.Hooper62% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 38 | +2.3 | |
| H.Henry85% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 9 | -1.8 | |
| M.Hollins65% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 8 | 1 | +1.7 |
| T.Henderson32% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 30 | +3.3 | |
| A.Gibson17% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -0.2 | |
| K.Boutte72% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | 1 | +3.3 |
| D.Douglas25% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 |
Defense M.Williams 2 sacks, M.Mapu 1 INT, R.Spillane 1 sack, H.III 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 2/2 FG (long 53)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 26/32 | 315 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +9.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane93% | 11 | 73% | 30 | -2.8 | |
| M.Washington61% | 3 | 20% | 23 | +1.1 | |
| O.II12% | 1 | 7% | 8 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane93% | 10 | 31% | 8 | 92 | 1 | +3.6 |
| T.Hill84% | 7 | 22% | 6 | 109 | +8.2 | |
| J.Waddle82% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 68 | 1 | +5.5 |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine28% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 18 | +1.5 | |
| A.Ingold35% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 13 | +0.4 | |
| M.Washington61% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| D.Eskridge7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.4 | |
| O.II12% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | 0.0 |
Defense B.Chubb 1 sack, J.Brooks 1 sack, C.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/2 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Patriots gain +0.17 EPA per dropback (5th). Dolphins allow +0.13 (26th).
Deep middle is open
Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Patriots take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Dolphins get home on 7% (13th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Patriots average +0.09 EPA per play (5th). Dolphins allow +0.09 (26th). League average is +0.01.
The Patriots lead the series 30–25 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Nov 1, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium: the Patriots won 24–19. Malik Willis started at quarterback for the Dolphins and Drake Maye for the Patriots; Jeff Hafley and Mike Vrabel coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | NE 24 at MIA 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | MIA 10 at NE 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | NE 33 at MIA 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | NE 15 at MIA 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | MIA 15 at NE 10 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 7–10 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 4–1 |
| Home | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Away | 8–0 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | +0.09#26 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 48%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 11%#25 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | +0.13#26 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.03#20 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.6#25 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 41%#17 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 65%#26 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 127#9 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 66#29 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 8.2#25 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 37#25 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.