DOWN X DOWN › week 2 › Seahawks at Steelers
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2025
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Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium

SEAvsPIT

Seahawks offensevsSteelers defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · SEA 31 · PIT 17

The Seahawks won 31–17 from as low as 15% (Q2 0:27, down 14⁠–⁠7). The Steelers had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 12:51: J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD (49% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 12:46, 24 points for the Seahawks.

At kickoffPIT 63%PIT by 3.5 on the line
SEA low point15%Q2 0:27 · down 14⁠–⁠7
Swings past 50%15times the favorite changed
Biggest swing24 ptsSEA · Q4 12:46
PIT wins50%SEA wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 12:46PITJ.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-J.Pierre has returned to the game.58% → 82%+24 SEA
  2. 2Q2 3:41SEAS.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by N.Herbig (Ca.Heyward) at PIT 38. N.Herbig to SEA 21 for 41 yards (R.Ouzts; A.Barner).49% → 70%+20 PIT
  3. 3Q3 4:17PITA.Rodgers pass short left intended for P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by D.Kendrick at SEA -7. Touchback.28% → 44%+16 SEA
  4. 4Q3 6:05PITA.Rodgers pass short left to J.Warren to SEA 5 for 65 yards (T.Woolen).61% → 76%+16 PIT
  5. 5Q1 4:41SEAS.Darnold pass deep left intended for C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by J.Ramsey at SEA 46. J.Ramsey to SEA 44 for 2 yards (R.Ouzts).46% → 59%+12 PIT
  6. ★Q4 12:51SEAJ.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOODturning point49% → 58%+8 SEA

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 2

K.III led the Seahawks at +9.1 EPA (13 carries for 105). J.Warren led the Steelers at +5.0 EPA (14 carries for 48).

SEA Seahawks

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
S.Darnold100%22/33295222+2.9
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
Z.Charbonnet55%1552%10-8.7
K.III35%1345%1051+8.9
A.Barner89%13%2+1.7
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
J.Smith-Njigba65%1033%8103+5.9
C.Kupp69%930%790+1.7
T.Horton40%413%2321+1.9
A.Barner89%310%2261-2.4
E.Arroyo40%310%231+1.3
K.III35%13%113+0.2

Defense D.Kendrick 1 INT, C.Bryant 1 INT, B.II 1.5 sacks, J.Reed 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 1/2 FG (long 54)

PIT Steelers

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
A.Rodgers95%18/33203123-6.2
M.Rudolph5%2/212-0.1
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
J.Warren58%1467%48-0.2
K.Gainwell42%524%20-2.1
A.Rodgers95%15%3-1.1
K.Johnson3%15%1-0.7
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
D.Metcalf90%619%3201+2.0
K.Gainwell42%516%316-2.6
J.Smith56%413%427+0.2
P.Freiermuth50%413%331-3.4
J.Warren58%413%486+5.2
C.III92%413%122-2.3
R.Wilson35%26%17-1.4
C.Heyward15%13%16+0.0
D.Washington37%13%00+0.6

Defense J.Ramsey 1 INT, N.Herbig 1 INT, P.Wilson 1 sack, J.Sawyer 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 3/3 FG (long 48)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Wideouts feast

Steelers give up 167 yards a game to wide receivers (29th), against a league average of 140. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 168 (4th).

02
Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Field goals, not touchdowns

Seahawks score a touchdown on 57% of red zone trips (21st). Steelers allow 54% (7th).

04
Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Seahawks succeed on 46% of plays (8th) against a defense that allows 44% (15th).

The series · Seahawks and Steelers since 1999, and this season's records10 meetings

The series is even at 5–5 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.

Seahawks at home2–1the Seahawks' record
In Pittsburgh3–3the Seahawks' record
Most pointsSeahawks 39 · Steelers 302015 · 2015
Biggest winSeahawks by 19 · Steelers by 241999 · 2011
Playoffs0–1the Seahawks' record

The last 5

2025 · Wk 2SEA 31 at PIT 17
2023 · Wk 17PIT 30 at SEA 23
2021 · Wk 6 · OTSEA 20 at PIT 23
2019 · Wk 2SEA 28 at PIT 26
2015 · Wk 12PIT 30 at SEA 39

2025 records

SeahawksSteelers
Overall14–310–7
Division4–24–2
Conference9–38–4
Other conference5–02–3
Home6–26–3
Away8–14–4
Last 5WWWWWWWWLW
StreakWon 7Won 1
Points a game28.4 – 17.223.4 – 22.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · SEA offense against PIT defense
StatSEA SEA offFavors SEA · Favors PITPIT PIT def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
+0.04#10
+0.02#18+0.01
Success rate
46%#8
44%#1544%
Yards per play
5.9#7
5.6#195.4
Explosive play rate
11%#7
9%#1510%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
+0.13#7
+0.03#17+0.01
Sack rate
5%#11
7%#107%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.06#21
-0.01#26-0.05
Yards per carry
4.2#17
4.3#194.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion
43%#10
44%#2840%
Red zone TD rate
57%#21
54%#759%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
168#4
167#29140
TE yards per game
40#27
64#2853
TE targets per game
5.5#30
8.3#287.3
RB receiving yards per game
29#16
30#1632
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Seahawks: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.277% of throws
+0.163% of throws
+1.288% of throws
Short
+0.2032% of throws
+0.2319% of throws
+0.0830% of throws

Steelers: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.4137 throws
+1.1225 throws
+1.1234 throws
Short
+0.02199 throws
+0.16170 throws
+0.04175 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.