2026
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Panthers, 8 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 34–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 15:00, 15 points for the Panthers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 15:00CARC.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official…58% → 73%
- 2Q1 12:03CARB.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan to ATL 5 for 26 yards (Aj.Terrell). PENALTY on ATL-G.Dexter, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 5.68% → 76%
- 3Q1 10:51CARB.Young pass short left to C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 76%
- 4Q1 9:07CARC.Rush pass short middle intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by B.Okereke (D.Lloyd) at CAR 41. B.Okereke to CAR 44 for 3 yards (K.Pitts; D.London).77% → 82%
- 5Q2 0:48CARB.Young pass deep middle to X.Legette to ATL 10 for 55 yards (M.Hughes).88% → 93%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Young led the Panthers at +12.2 EPA (23 of 36 for 287). B.Robinson led the Falcons at +2.0 EPA (11 carries for 51).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young94% | 23/36 | 287 | 3 | 2 | +11.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard65% | 12 | 55% | 53 | +0.2 | |
| J.Brooks30% | 5 | 23% | 16 | -0.8 | |
| A.Dillon6% | 3 | 14% | -3 | -3.1 | |
| K.Pickett6% | 1 | 5% | -4 | -2.4 | |
| B.Young94% | 1 | 5% | 6 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan80% | 10 | 31% | 5 | 101 | +3.6 | |
| J.Coker76% | 9 | 28% | 8 | 66 | +1.7 | |
| X.Legette50% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 64 | +3.1 | |
| D.Waller44% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 33 | 2 | +5.6 |
| C.Hubbard65% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 11 | 1 | +4.6 |
| T.Tremble56% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.9 | |
| J.Brooks30% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -5 | -1.5 | |
| M.Evans58% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +0.0 |
Defense D.Lloyd 1 sack and 2 INT, B.Okereke 1 INT, J.Phillips 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 2/2 FG (long 37)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Rush | 10/17 | 86 | 2 | 1 | -12.2 | |
| J.Strand42% | 8/15 | 59 | 1 | 2 | -12.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson51% | 16 | 50% | 72 | -1.9 | |
| B.Robinson48% | 11 | 34% | 51 | +0.8 | |
| C.Rush | 2 | 6% | 20 | -3.0 | |
| J.Strand42% | 2 | 6% | 16 | +1.5 | |
| D.London62% | 1 | 3% | -2 | -4.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London62% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 51 | +3.3 | |
| A.Hooper43% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 20 | +1.6 | |
| J.Dotson75% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 11 | -6.0 | |
| B.Robinson51% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 9 | -4.5 | |
| O.Zaccheaus43% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| C.Blair49% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 6 | -1.8 | |
| K.Pitts38% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 15 | -8.3 | |
| B.Robinson48% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 16 | +1.2 | |
| Z.Branch20% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 14 | +0.5 | |
| C.Woerner49% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense Z.Smith 0.5 sacks, S.Ebukam 0.5 sacks, C.Thomas 0.5 sacks, G.Sr. 0.5 sacks · Kicking N.Folk 1/2 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Falcons give up 150 yards a game to wide receivers (20th), against a league average of 147. Panthers' wide receivers produce 181 (5th).
Deep left is open
Falcons are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.17 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Panthers take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (22nd). Falcons get home on 6% (20th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Panthers average +0.04 EPA per play (12th). Falcons allow -0.04 (11th). League average is +0.00.
The Falcons lead the series 33–22 since 1999. The Panthers have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | CAR 34 at ATL 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 · OT | CAR 30 at ATL 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | ATL 0 at CAR 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 · OT | CAR 44 at ATL 38 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | ATL 38 at CAR 20 |
2026 records
| Panthers | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Division | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Home | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 25.4 – 27.6 | 21.4 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#12 | -0.04#11 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#16 | 44%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 9%#13 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#16 | +0.00#14 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.08#14 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#16 | 4.6#26 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 42%#18 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#12 | 63%#17 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#5 | 150#20 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#4 | 55#17 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.7#8 | 7.6#16 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#18 | 33#17 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.