DOWN X DOWN › week 2 › Panthers at Falcons

Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET

2026

Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Falcons offensevsPanthers defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Falcons, 7 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

CAR offense ATL offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · CAR 34 · ATL 3

The Panthers won 34–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 15:00, 15 points for the Panthers.

At kickoffCAR 58%CAR by 2.5 on the line

CAR low point58%Q1 15:00 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%0times the favorite changed

Biggest swing15 ptsCAR · Q1 15:00

ATL wins50%CAR wins

12345CAR low 58%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q1 15:00ATLC.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official…58% → 73%+15 CAR
2Q1 12:03CARB.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan to ATL 5 for 26 yards (Aj.Terrell). PENALTY on ATL-G.Dexter, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 5.68% → 76%+8 CAR
3Q1 10:51CARB.Young pass short left to C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 76%+7 CAR
4Q1 9:07ATLC.Rush pass short middle intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by B.Okereke (D.Lloyd) at CAR 41. B.Okereke to CAR 44 for 3 yards (K.Pitts; D.London).77% → 82%+6 CAR
5Q2 0:48CARB.Young pass deep middle to X.Legette to ATL 10 for 55 yards (M.Hughes).88% → 93%+5 CAR

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 2

B.Young led the Panthers at +12.2 EPA (23 of 36 for 287). B.Robinson led the Falcons at +2.0 EPA (11 carries for 51).

Panthers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
B.Young94%	23/36	287	3		2	+11.1

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
C.Hubbard65%	12	55%	53	+0.2
J.Brooks30%	5	23%	16	-0.8
A.Dillon6%	3	14%	-3	-3.1
K.Pickett6%	1	5%	-4	-2.4
B.Young94%	1	5%	6	+1.1

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.McMillan80%	10	31%	5	101		+3.6
J.Coker76%	9	28%	8	66		+1.7
X.Legette50%	4	13%	2	64		+3.1
D.Waller44%	3	9%	3	33	2	+5.6
C.Hubbard65%	2	6%	2	11	1	+4.6
T.Tremble56%	2	6%	1	4		-0.9
J.Brooks30%	1	3%	1	-5		-1.5
M.Evans58%	1	3%	1	13		+0.0

Defense D.Lloyd 1 sack and 2 INT, B.Okereke 1 INT, J.Phillips 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 2/2 FG, 4/4 XP, 10 pts

Falcons

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
C.Rush	10/17	86		2	1	-12.2
J.Strand42%	8/15	59		1	2	-12.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
B.Robinson51%	16	50%	72	-1.9
B.Robinson48%	11	34%	51	+0.8
C.Rush	2	6%	20	-3.0
J.Strand42%	2	6%	16	+1.5
D.London62%	1	3%	-2	-4.1

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
D.London62%	5	16%	4	51	+3.3
A.Hooper43%	4	13%	2	20	+1.6
J.Dotson75%	4	13%	2	11	-6.0
B.Robinson51%	4	13%	3	9	-4.5
O.Zaccheaus43%	3	10%	1	3	-2.1
C.Blair49%	3	10%	1	6	-1.8
K.Pitts38%	3	10%	1	15	-8.3
B.Robinson48%	2	6%	2	16	+1.2
Z.Branch20%	2	6%	2	14	+0.5
C.Woerner49%	1	3%	0	0	-0.6

Defense Z.Smith 0.5 sacks, S.Ebukam 0.5 sacks, C.Thomas 0.5 sacks, G.Sr. 0.5 sacks · Kicking N.Folk 1/2 FG (53 no good), 3 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Ground game edge

Falcons average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Panthers allow 4.6 (27th).

Opportunity

Short middle is open

Panthers are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.29 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 16% of their throws there.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Panthers give up 47 yards a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 55. Falcons' tight ends produce 37 (26th).

Wash

Yards per play

Call this one even. Falcons gain 5.6 yards per play (13th). Panthers give up 5.4 (19th), with the league at 5.4.

The series · Panthers and Falcons since 1999, and this season's records55 meetings

The Falcons lead the series 33–22 since 1999. The Panthers have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.

Panthers at home12–15the Panthers' record

In Atlanta10–18the Panthers' record

Most pointsPanthers 44 · Falcons 482005 · 2016

Biggest winPanthers by 38 · Falcons by 412015 · 2002

The last 5

2026 · Wk 2	CAR 34 at ATL 3
2025 · Wk 11 · OT	CAR 30 at ATL 27
2025 · Wk 3	ATL 0 at CAR 30
2024 · Wk 18 · OT	CAR 44 at ATL 38
2024 · Wk 6	ATL 38 at CAR 20

2026 records

	Panthers	Falcons
Overall	3–4	3–5
Division	1–1	1–2
Conference	3–3	3–3
Other conference	0–1	0–2
Home	1–2	1–3
Away	2–2	2–2
Last 5	LWWLL	WLLWL
Streak	Lost 2	Lost 1
Points a game	25.4 – 27.6	21.4 – 23.6

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · ATL offense against CAR defense

Stat	ATL off	CAR def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.10#29	+0.03#20	+0.00
Success rate	43%#15	44%#22	44%
Yards per play	5.6#13	5.4#19	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#16	8%#5	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.18#29	+0.02#16	+0.03
Sack rate	7%#19	4%#29	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.02#9	-0.01#28	-0.08
Yards per carry	4.7#5	4.6#27	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	35%#29	47%#28	41%
Red zone TD rate	64%#14	80%#30	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	133#21	146#17	147
TE yards per game	37#26	47#12	55
TE targets per game	6.5#25	7.6#15	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	30#18	27#9	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Falcons: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+1.227% of throws

-0.333% of throws

+0.387% of throws

Short

+0.1335% of throws

-0.5216% of throws

-0.3732% of throws

Panthers: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+1.608 throws

+0.038 throws

-0.0522 throws