2026
Week 2 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Dolphins, 7 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 35–13 and were favored the whole way, never below 80%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:40, 5 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:40MIAM.Willis pass short left to D.Herman to SF 49 for 18 yards (F.Warner). FUMBLES (F.Warner), ball out of bounds at SF 40.10% → 15%
- 2Q1 9:19SFB.Purdy pass short left to C.McCaffrey pushed ob at MIA 37 for 11 yards (M.Taaffe).88% → 92%
- 3Q1 4:20SFC.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.91% → 95%
- 4Q1 11:16MIAM.Willis pass incomplete short left to M.Washington.82% → 86%
- 5Q1 0:49MIAM.Willis up the middle to SF 29 for 2 yards (J.Thompson).7% → 11%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Miller led the Dolphins at +7.0 EPA (1 catches for 77). B.Purdy led the 49ers at +26.5 EPA (20 of 22 for 287).
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis100% | 14/23 | 197 | 1 | 4 | +4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane76% | 20 | 69% | 74 | -3.9 | |
| O.II19% | 3 | 10% | 7 | -0.5 | |
| M.Willis100% | 2 | 7% | 6 | +1.8 | |
| J.Wright5% | 2 | 7% | 11 | +1.3 | |
| B.Pinion | 1 | 3% | 0 | -3.2 | |
| M.Washington73% | 1 | 3% | 4 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane76% | 6 | 26% | 3 | 19 | -0.7 | |
| M.Washington73% | 5 | 22% | 4 | 43 | +1.8 | |
| G.Dulcich61% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 17 | +0.2 | |
| D.Herman29% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 18 | +0.4 | |
| C.Douglas86% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 19 | +1.9 | |
| R.Miller12% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 77 | 1 | +7.0 |
| W.Kacmarek47% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 | |
| C.Bell41% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking R.Patterson 2/3 FG (51 no good), 1/1 XP, 7 pts
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy85% | 20/22 | 287 | 2 | +23.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey52% | 10 | 37% | 23 | 2 | -0.6 |
| K.Black33% | 7 | 26% | 25 | -2.0 | |
| J.James15% | 4 | 15% | 15 | -2.1 | |
| B.Purdy85% | 3 | 11% | 30 | 1 | +3.1 |
| M.Jones15% | 2 | 7% | -2 | 0.0 | |
| D.Sr.60% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey52% | 4 | 19% | 4 | 43 | +5.5 | |
| G.Kittle48% | 4 | 19% | 4 | 80 | 1 | +5.8 |
| D.Sr.60% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 31 | +2.0 | |
| M.Evans54% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 54 | +4.7 | |
| D.Robinson31% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 34 | +3.4 | |
| K.Juszczyk44% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 27 | 1 | +3.6 |
| K.Hodge | 1 | 5% | 1 | 18 | +1.0 |
Defense K.White 1 sack, M.Sigle 1 sack, R.Height 1 sack, F.Warner 0.5 sacks · Kicking E.Pineiro 5/5 XP, 5 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Dolphins
Dolphins convert 44% of third downs (8th). 49ers allow 38% (11th).
Short left is open
49ers are worst against short left throws, allowing +0.36 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 27% of their throws there.
Nowhere to run
Dolphins' run game is 20th in EPA per carry (-0.12). 49ers allow -0.18 (2nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Dolphins create explosive plays on 11% of snaps (6th). 49ers give them up at 4% (1st).
The Dolphins lead the series 5–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | MIA 13 at SF 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | SF 17 at MIA 29 |
| 2022 · Wk 13 | MIA 17 at SF 33 |
| 2020 · Wk 5 | MIA 43 at SF 17 |
| 2016 · Wk 12 | SF 24 at MIA 31 |
2026 records
| Dolphins | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1–6 | 6–1 |
| Division | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 2–0 |
| Home | 0–3 | 4–0 |
| Away | 1–3 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 25.9 | 28.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.05#23 | -0.05#8 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 40%#28 | 44%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#22 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#6 | 4%#1 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.09#25 | +0.04#18 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#31 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.12#20 | -0.18#2 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#19 | 3.6#7 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#8 | 38%#11 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#17 | 48%#7 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#22 | 132#11 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#24 | 44#7 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#29 | 7.9#19 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 12#32 | 49#32 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.