2026
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bengals, 7 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 20–6; their low point was 31% at Q2 8:45. The Texans had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:21: J.Burrow pass short middle to T.Higgins to HOU 32 for 23 yards (A.Al-Shaair). ** Injury Update: CIN-A.Mims has returned to the game (46% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:37, 16 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 3:37CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 67%
- 2Q3 7:33CINK.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short65% → 78%
- 3Q2 0:31CINR.Rehkow punts 58 yards to HOU 14 J.Noel to HOU 24 for 10 yards (D.Ivey; J.Giles-Harris).50% → 60%
- 4Q2 6:58CINB.D.Montgomery right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (D.Lawrence).33% → 42%
- 5Q3 3:12CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.82% → 90%
- ★Q2 4:21CINJ.Burrow pass short middle to T.Higgins to HOU 32 for 23 yards (A.Al-Shaair). ** Injury Update: CIN-A.Mims has returned to the game.turning point46% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Higgins led the Bengals at +5.5 EPA (5 catches for 95). D.Schultz led the Texans at +7.5 EPA (12 catches for 140).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 20/31 | 207 | 2 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown70% | 20 | 87% | 80 | -3.9 | |
| S.Perine40% | 2 | 9% | 6 | -0.9 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Higgins72% | 10 | 32% | 5 | 95 | +5.5 | |
| J.Chase88% | 9 | 29% | 7 | 75 | 2 | +3.9 |
| C.Brown70% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 2 | -4.1 | |
| E.All42% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 5 | -1.0 | |
| S.Perine40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +2.5 | |
| A.Iosivas53% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | -0.3 | |
| D.Meyers18% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| C.Young17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | -0.2 |
Defense C.Johnson 2 sacks, J.Allen 1 sack, S.Stewart 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 2/2 FG (long 57)
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 30/55 | 353 | 4 | -6.4 | ||
| K.Kroeger | 0/1 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks48% | 8 | 44% | 8 | -6.7 | |
| D.Montgomery52% | 6 | 33% | 10 | -6.4 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 3 | 17% | 29 | +2.2 | |
| J.Noel60% | 1 | 6% | 13 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz68% | 14 | 28% | 12 | 140 | +7.5 | |
| X.Hutchinson81% | 9 | 18% | 3 | 37 | -2.0 | |
| J.Wayne50% | 7 | 14% | 2 | 33 | -4.5 | |
| W.Marks48% | 6 | 12% | 5 | 27 | -0.2 | |
| K.Boutte72% | 5 | 10% | 3 | 37 | +0.4 | |
| J.Noel60% | 5 | 10% | 1 | 31 | -0.2 | |
| F.Moreau29% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 34 | +2.5 | |
| D.Montgomery52% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 14 | +0.4 |
Defense D.Hunter 1 sack, S.Rankins 1 sack, L.Hall 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/3 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Texans give up 196 yards a game to wide receivers (32nd), against a league average of 147. Bengals' wide receivers produce 211 (1st).
Deep right is open
Texans are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 11% of their throws there.
Tight ends go quiet
Texans give up 6.3 targets a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 7.6. Bengals' tight ends produce 7.0 (21st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Bengals create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (21st). Texans give them up at 10% (22nd).
The Texans lead the series 9–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | CIN 20 at HOU 6 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | HOU 30 at CIN 27 |
| 2020 · Wk 16 | CIN 37 at HOU 31 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | HOU 13 at CIN 9 |
| 2016 · Wk 16 | CIN 10 at HOU 12 |
2026 records
| Bengals | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Division | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 2–1 | 0–4 |
| Away | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | LLWWW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 29.4 – 22.6 | 23.6 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#5 | +0.03#22 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 50%#2 | 41%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#6 | 5.4#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 10%#22 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#5 | +0.07#20 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 8%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.13#22 | -0.03#25 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#26 | 3.8#12 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 55%#1 | 42%#19 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#9 | 68%#24 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 211#1 | 196#32 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#17 | 46#10 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.0#21 | 6.3#5 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#10 | 21#6 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.