Texans offensevsBengals defense

The Bengals won 20–6; their low point was 31% at Q2 8:45. The Texans had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:21: J.Burrow pass short middle to T.Higgins to HOU 32 for 23 yards (A.Al-Shaair). ** Injury Update: CIN-A.Mims has returned to the game (46% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:37, 16 points for the Bengals.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q2 3:37CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 67%+16 CIN
2. 2Q3 7:33HOUK.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short65% → 78%+13 CIN
3. 3Q2 0:31CINR.Rehkow punts 58 yards to HOU 14 J.Noel to HOU 24 for 10 yards (D.Ivey; J.Giles-Harris).50% → 60%+10 CIN
4. 4Q2 6:58HOUB.D.Montgomery right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (D.Lawrence).33% → 42%+9 CIN
5. 5Q3 3:12CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.82% → 90%+8 CIN
6. ★Q2 4:21CINJ.Burrow pass short middle to T.Higgins to HOU 32 for 23 yards (A.Al-Shaair). ** Injury Update: CIN-A.Mims has returned to the game.turning point46% → 51%+5 CIN

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.