2026
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Browns offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Browns, 8 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Browns won 23–19 from as low as 8% (Q3 8:51, down 16–6). The Buccaneers had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:33: B.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLE 20 for 3 yards (C.Schwesinger) (50% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:22, 39 points for the Browns.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:22TBB.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to E.Egbuka.57% → 96%
- 2Q4 3:57CLED.Watson pass short left to B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.39% → 67%
- 3Q3 1:33CLED.Watson pass short middle to D.Boston for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.17% → 32%
- 4Q4 12:00TBB.Mayfield pass deep middle to T.Johnson to CLE 21 for 49 yards (T.Campbell).66% → 75%
- 5Q2 2:50CLEQ.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain (E.Roberts).73% → 82%
- ★Q4 0:33TBB.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLE 20 for 3 yards (C.Schwesinger).turning point50% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Watson led the Browns at +11.8 EPA (24 of 30 for 238). C.Jr. led the Buccaneers at +4.4 EPA (3 catches for 46).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Watson100% | 24/30 | 238 | 2 | 2 | +10.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins67% | 12 | 52% | 21 | -8.3 | |
| D.Watson100% | 7 | 30% | 22 | +1.5 | |
| R.Sanders19% | 2 | 9% | 4 | -1.0 | |
| J.McLaughlin14% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.1 | |
| K.Concepcion66% | 1 | 4% | -6 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Boston93% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 95 | 1 | +7.0 |
| H.Jr.86% | 6 | 20% | 5 | 54 | +2.2 | |
| K.Concepcion66% | 6 | 20% | 6 | 28 | +0.2 | |
| Q.Judkins67% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 27 | +1.1 | |
| B.Whiteheart47% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 17 | 1 | +2.5 |
| J.Jeudy59% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| J.McLaughlin14% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| R.Sanders19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.2 | |
| I.Bond7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +0.7 |
Defense M.Harden 1 INT, G.Delpit 1 sack, R.Jr. 1 sack, M.Graham 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 3/3 FG, 2/2 XP, 11 pts
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 21/34 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -13.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving78% | 17 | 68% | 89 | -0.1 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 4 | 16% | 29 | +4.6 | |
| K.Gainwell35% | 2 | 8% | 10 | +1.2 | |
| C.Jr.86% | 1 | 4% | 12 | +0.5 | |
| E.Egbuka86% | 1 | 4% | -3 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.III74% | 7 | 21% | 2 | 27 | -6.4 | |
| C.Otton89% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 38 | -1.5 | |
| E.Egbuka86% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 16 | 1 | -1.7 |
| K.Gainwell35% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 5 | -2.7 | |
| B.Irving78% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 1 | -2.3 | |
| T.Johnson29% | 4 | 12% | 1 | 49 | +1.0 | |
| C.Jr.86% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 46 | +3.9 |
Defense A.Robinson 1 sack, D.Walker 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 4/4 FG, 1/1 XP, 13 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Buccaneers give up 33 yards a game to running backs (19th), against a league average of 32. Browns' running backs produce 40 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Browns send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Buccaneers
Browns convert 32% of third downs (30th). Buccaneers allow 34% (6th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Browns succeed on 42% of plays (18th) against a defense that allows 39% (3rd).
The Buccaneers lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). The Browns have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | CLE 23 at TB 19 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 · OT | TB 17 at CLE 23 |
| 2018 · Wk 7 · OT | CLE 23 at TB 26 |
| 2014 · Wk 9 | TB 17 at CLE 22 |
| 2010 · Wk 1 | CLE 14 at TB 17 |
2026 records
| Browns | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Division | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–3 |
| Home | 3–0 | 1–4 |
| Away | 2–3 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLWWL | LWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 17.4 – 21.6 | 22.3 – 18.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.08#25 | -0.16#2 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#18 | 39%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#23 | 5.1#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#24 | 7%#4 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#23 | -0.20#2 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 12%#32 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.19#27 | -0.15#5 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#27 | 3.6#8 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 32%#30 | 34%#6 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#31 | 50%#9 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#23 | 131#10 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#16 | 56#21 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.0#20 | 8.1#23 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 40#9 | 33#19 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.