DOWN X DOWN › week 2 › Browns at Buccaneers

Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET

2026

Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium

Buccaneers offensevsBrowns defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Buccaneers, 8 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

CLE offense TB offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · CLE 23 · TB 19

The Browns won 23–19 from as low as 8% (Q3 8:51, down 16⁠–⁠6). The Buccaneers had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:33: B.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLE 20 for 3 yards (C.Schwesinger) (50% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:22, 39 points for the Browns.

At kickoffTB 77%TB by 8.5 on the line

CLE low point8%Q3 8:51 · down 16⁠–⁠6

Swings past 50%3times the favorite changed

Biggest swing39 ptsCLE · Q4 0:22

TB wins50%CLE wins

12345Turning pointCLE low 8%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 0:22TBB.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to E.Egbuka.57% → 96%+39 CLE
2Q4 3:57CLED.Watson pass short left to B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.39% → 67%+28 CLE
3Q3 1:33CLED.Watson pass short middle to D.Boston for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.17% → 32%+16 CLE
4Q4 12:00TBB.Mayfield pass deep middle to T.Johnson to CLE 21 for 49 yards (T.Campbell).66% → 75%+9 TB
5Q2 2:50CLEQ.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain (E.Roberts).73% → 82%+9 TB
★Q4 0:33TBB.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLE 20 for 3 yards (C.Schwesinger).turning point50% → 57%+7 CLE

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 2

D.Watson led the Browns at +11.8 EPA (24 of 30 for 238). C.Jr. led the Buccaneers at +4.4 EPA (3 catches for 46).

Browns

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
D.Watson100%	24/30	238	2		2	+10.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
Q.Judkins67%	12	52%	21	-8.3
D.Watson100%	7	30%	22	+1.5
R.Sanders19%	2	9%	4	-1.0
J.McLaughlin14%	1	4%	3	-0.1
K.Concepcion66%	1	4%	-6	-1.9

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
D.Boston93%	7	23%	5	95	1	+7.0
H.Jr.86%	6	20%	5	54		+2.2
K.Concepcion66%	6	20%	6	28		+0.2
Q.Judkins67%	5	17%	5	27		+1.1
B.Whiteheart47%	2	7%	1	17	1	+2.5
J.Jeudy59%	1	3%	0	0		-0.9
J.McLaughlin14%	1	3%	0	0		-0.4
R.Sanders19%	1	3%	1	7		+0.2
I.Bond7%	1	3%	1	10		+0.7

Defense M.Harden 1 INT, G.Delpit 1 sack, R.Jr. 1 sack, M.Graham 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 3/3 FG, 2/2 XP, 11 pts

Buccaneers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
B.Mayfield100%	21/34	182	1	1	3	-13.6

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
B.Irving78%	17	68%	89	-0.1
B.Mayfield100%	4	16%	29	+4.6
K.Gainwell35%	2	8%	10	+1.2
C.Jr.86%	1	4%	12	+0.5
E.Egbuka86%	1	4%	-3	-1.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.III74%	7	21%	2	27		-6.4
C.Otton89%	6	18%	5	38		-1.5
E.Egbuka86%	5	15%	3	16	1	-1.7
K.Gainwell35%	4	12%	3	5		-2.7
B.Irving78%	4	12%	4	1		-2.3
T.Johnson29%	4	12%	1	49		+1.0
C.Jr.86%	3	9%	3	46		+3.9

Defense A.Robinson 1 sack, D.Walker 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 4/4 FG, 1/1 XP, 13 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Ground game edge

Buccaneers average 5.0 yards per carry (3rd). Browns allow 4.7 (28th).

Opportunity

Deep left is open

Browns are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Checkdowns go nowhere

Browns give up 18 yards a game to running backs (1st), against a league average of 32. Buccaneers' running backs produce 17 (29th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Buccaneers average -0.09 EPA per play (26th). Browns allow -0.02 (14th). League average is +0.00.

The series · Browns and Buccaneers since 1999, and this season's records7 meetings

The Buccaneers lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). The Browns have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.

Browns at home2–1the Browns' record

In Tampa Bay1–3the Browns' record

Most pointsBrowns 23 · Buccaneers 262018 · 2018

Biggest winBrowns by 6 · Buccaneers by 152022 · 2006

The last 5

2026 · Wk 2	CLE 23 at TB 19
2022 · Wk 12 · OT	TB 17 at CLE 23
2018 · Wk 7 · OT	CLE 23 at TB 26
2014 · Wk 9	TB 17 at CLE 22
2010 · Wk 1	CLE 14 at TB 17

2026 records

	Browns	Buccaneers
Overall	5–3	3–5
Division	2–1	2–0
Conference	3–3	3–2
Other conference	2–0	0–3
Home	3–0	1–4
Away	2–3	2–1
Last 5	WLWWL	LWLWW
Streak	Lost 1	Won 2
Points a game	17.4 – 21.6	22.3 – 18.9

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · TB offense against CLE defense

Stat	TB off	CLE def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.09#26	-0.02#14	+0.00
Success rate	41%#25	42%#10	44%
Yards per play	4.9#25	5.3#11	5.4
Explosive play rate	10%#11	12%#32	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.23#31	-0.03#9	+0.03
Sack rate	10%#30	7%#10	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.01#8	-0.02#27	-0.08
Yards per carry	5.0#3	4.7#28	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	40%#14	40%#14	41%
Red zone TD rate	52%#26	52%#11	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	104#31	138#13	147
TE yards per game	27#32	59#23	55
TE targets per game	4.1#32	8.0#21	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	17#29	18#1	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Buccaneers: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.387% of throws

+0.113% of throws

+0.347% of throws

Short

-0.0334% of throws

+0.1412% of throws

-0.1837% of throws

Browns: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.4221 throws

+0.3516 throws

-0.3120 throws