2026
Week 2 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Colts, 7 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 33–30; their low point in regulation was 38% at Q4 1:24. Tied 27–27 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 0:01: H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q3 10:38, 19 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:38KCP.Mahomes pass deep right to T.Thornton to IND 1 for 45 yards (J.Carlies).55% → 74%
- 2Q4 0:03INDP.Mahomes pass short middle to R.Rice to IND 23 for 31 yards (C.Taylor-Britt; H.Wohler).33% → 50%
- 3Q4 0:34KCR.Sanchez punts 41 yards to KC 10 N.Remigio to KC 16 for 6 yards (D.Burks; C.Taylor-Britt).54% → 68%
- 4Q2 1:04INDJ.Taylor right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.34% → 47%
- 5Q1 5:25KCD.Jones pass short left intended for K.Allen INTERCEPTED by K.Fulton at IND 16. K.Fulton to IND 16 for no gain.61% → 74%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
J.Downs led the Colts at +8.2 EPA (7 catches for 72). P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +13.9 EPA (32 of 47 for 382).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 22/31 | 210 | 1 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor94% | 24 | 75% | 92 | 2 | +3.8 |
| D.Jones100% | 3 | 9% | 10 | +0.1 | |
| S.McGowan6% | 2 | 6% | 0 | -1.2 | |
| D.Burks5% | 2 | 6% | 14 | +0.5 | |
| T.Warren89% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Downs83% | 9 | 30% | 7 | 72 | +8.2 | |
| T.Warren89% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 21 | 1 | -0.1 |
| K.Allen51% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 5 | -7.6 | |
| J.Taylor94% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 40 | +2.5 | |
| L.Treadwell74% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 61 | +3.6 | |
| A.Ogletree29% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| A.Pierce26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 |
Defense D.Buckner 1 sack, J.Tillery 1 sack · Kicking S.Shrader 3/3 FG (long 49)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 32/47 | 382 | 3 | 2 | +13.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III82% | 24 | 83% | 117 | +0.8 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 2 | 7% | 17 | +0.5 | |
| E.Johnson18% | 2 | 7% | 15 | +0.9 | |
| K.Tonga | 1 | 3% | 3 | +2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce85% | 11 | 26% | 9 | 101 | 1 | +5.1 |
| K.III82% | 10 | 23% | 6 | 61 | -0.5 | |
| X.Worthy86% | 7 | 16% | 5 | 25 | 1 | +0.5 |
| R.Rice79% | 6 | 14% | 4 | 83 | +1.3 | |
| T.Thornton59% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 86 | +8.2 | |
| J.Royals15% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 6 | 1 | +2.6 |
| E.Johnson18% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 20 | +0.8 | |
| N.Gray50% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense K.Fulton 1 INT · Kicking H.Butker 4/5 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Chiefs give up 10.0 targets a game to tight ends (31st), against a league average of 7.6. Colts' tight ends produce 8.4 (9th).
Deep left is open
Chiefs are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.62 EPA per attempt. Colts send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Chiefs give up 121 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 147. Colts' wide receivers produce 129 (24th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Colts create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (22nd). Chiefs give them up at 8% (9th).
The Colts lead the series 12–6 since 1999. The Chiefs have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 · OT | IND 30 at KC 33 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 · OT | IND 20 at KC 23 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | KC 17 at IND 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | IND 19 at KC 13 |
| 2018 · Wk 19 · playoffs | IND 13 at KC 31 |
2026 records
| Colts | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Division | 1–2 | 3–1 |
| Conference | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Home | 1–2 | 3–0 |
| Away | 1–4 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WWWLL |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 20.1 – 27.8 | 23.9 – 18.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#30 | -0.04#10 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#21 | 40%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#31 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 8%#9 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#30 | -0.01#13 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 4%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.13#8 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#15 | 3.4#1 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 40%#15 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#13 | 42%#4 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#24 | 121#3 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#25 | 66#25 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.4#9 | 10.0#31 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 42#26 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.