DOWN X DOWN › week 1 › Dolphins at Raiders
Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

Week 1 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium

MIAvsLV

Dolphins offensevsRaiders defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Dolphins, 8 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

MIA offenseLV offense
How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · MIA 13 · LV 27

The Raiders won 27–13 and were favored the whole way, never below 53%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 12:52, 11 points for the Dolphins.

At kickoffLV 58%LV by 3 on the line
LV low point53%Q1 11:33 · tied 0⁠–⁠0
Swings past 50%0times the favorite changed
Biggest swing11 ptsMIA · Q3 12:52
LV wins50%MIA wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 12:52MIAM.Willis scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 29%+11 MIA
  2. 2Q1 1:38LVK.Cousins pass short middle to J.Bech for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 77%+9 LV
  3. 3Q3 10:06LVK.Cousins pass short left to A.Jeanty for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.82% → 89%+7 LV
  4. 4Q1 12:14MIAM.Willis pass short left to D.Achane to LV 45 for 14 yards (T.Stukes).40% → 48%+7 MIA
  5. 5Q3 12:00LVK.Cousins pass deep left to T.Tucker to MIA 24 for 21 yards (M.Taaffe) [J.Phillips].74% → 81%+6 LV

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 1

G.Dulcich led the Dolphins at +1.6 EPA (2 catches for 18). T.Tucker led the Raiders at +3.8 EPA (2 catches for 27).

MIA Dolphins

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
M.Willis100%15/2722015-5.5
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
D.Achane86%1161%36-2.7
M.Willis100%633%391+1.1
J.Wright7%16%-1-0.9
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
M.Washington98%830%353-3.2
C.Douglas91%726%594+1.6
D.Achane86%519%430+1.4
G.Dulcich77%27%218+1.6
C.Bell52%27%125+1.5
K.Jr.29%27%00-3.0
W.Kacmarek25%14%00-0.6

Defense D.Jr. 1 INT, M.Taaffe 1 INT · Kicking R.Patterson 2/3 FG (41 no good), 1/1 XP, 7 pts

LV Raiders

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
K.Cousins100%21/3016032+0.4
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
A.Jeanty74%2362%102-0.7
M.Jr.19%719%41-0.9
K.Cousins100%514%-6-3.8
C.Heyward47%13%1+1.9
M.Benson10%13%-8-1.4
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
M.Mayer81%724%632+0.1
A.Jeanty74%621%6452+2.8
J.Nailor60%517%327-1.6
T.Tucker71%414%227+3.8
J.Bech40%414%3231-3.0
M.Benson10%27%16-0.4
C.White16%13%00-0.8

Defense K.Paye 2 sacks, M.Crosby 1.5 sacks, T.Stukes 1 INT, N.Dean 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 2/2 FG, 3/3 XP, 9 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Third downs favor Dolphins

Dolphins convert 44% of third downs (8th). Raiders allow 44% (25th).

02
Opportunity

Deep left is open

Raiders are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Checkdowns go nowhere

Raiders give up 32 yards a game to running backs (16th), against a league average of 32. Dolphins' running backs produce 12 (32nd).

04
Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Dolphins succeed on 40% of plays (28th) against a defense that allows 48% (30th).

The series · Dolphins and Raiders since 1999, and this season's records18 meetings

The Dolphins lead the series 13–5 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.

Dolphins at home8–2the Dolphins' record
In Las Vegas4–3the Dolphins' record
Most pointsDolphins 38 · Raiders 352014 · 2007
Biggest winDolphins by 24 · Raiders by 272014 · 2000
Playoffs0–1the Dolphins' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 1MIA 13 at LV 27
2024 · Wk 11LV 19 at MIA 34
2023 · Wk 11LV 13 at MIA 20
2021 · Wk 3 · OTMIA 28 at LV 31
2020 · Wk 16MIA 26 at LV 25

2026 records

DolphinsRaiders
Overall1–64–4
Division1–11–1
Conference1–43–3
Other conference0–21–1
Home0–31–3
Away1–33–1
Last 5LLLWLLLLLW
StreakLost 1Won 1
Points a game16.7 – 25.927.6 – 28.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · MIA offense against LV defense
StatMIA MIA offFavors MIA · Favors LVLV LV def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
-0.05#23
+0.08#28+0.00
Success rate
40%#28
48%#3044%
Yards per play
5.1#22
6.2#325.4
Explosive play rate
11%#6
11%#319%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
-0.09#25
+0.16#27+0.03
Sack rate
10%#31
7%#167%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.12#20
-0.03#24-0.08
Yards per carry
3.9#19
5.2#324.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
44%#8
44%#2541%
Red zone TD rate
59%#17
71%#2761%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
130#22
163#25147
TE yards per game
40#24
56#1955
TE targets per game
5.1#29
8.6#267.6
RB receiving yards per game
12#32
32#1632
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Dolphins: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.198% of throws
-0.057% of throws
+0.749% of throws
Short
+0.1627% of throws
+0.1113% of throws
-0.0736% of throws

Raiders: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.7324 throws
+0.0714 throws
+0.2825 throws
Short
+0.2380 throws
+0.2430 throws
+0.3281 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.