2026
2026 season · QB · #10 · 7th season
Justin Herbert
Age 28 · 6'6" · 237 lb · Oregon · Pick 6 overall (2020). Listed QB1 on the 3WR 1TE depth chart. Snap share 100% across 7 games.
- How goodHerbert's -64.7 EPA is 38th of 38 quarterbacks.
- Where it comes fromThe biggest share comes after the catch (+92.0, 30th percentile per dropback).
- Fantasy10.0 standard points a game, QB31 of 34.10.0 half-PPR points a game, QB31 of 34.10.0 PPR points a game, QB31 of 34.
- How he's usedHe runs when it breaks down: 9% of his dropbacks end in a scramble (league 4%).
- LatelyDropbacks are steady: 34.7 a game over his last three against 33.6 for the season.
- This weekA middle-of-the-pack matchup: the Texans rank 20th vs the pass, allowing +0.07 EPA per dropback.
How good is hehis line against the league at his position
| Stat | Value | Rank | League | Pctl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per dropback | -0.26 | 38th of 38 | 1st | |
| CPOEcompletion over expected | -4.2 | 31st of 38 | 20th | |
| Sack rateper dropback, lower is better | 10% | 35th of 38 | 9th | |
| Yards per attempt | 6.6 | 26th of 38 | 33rd | |
| TD rateper attempt | 2% | 35th of 38 | 9th | |
| INT rateper attempt, lower is better | 5% | 37th of 38 | 4th |
| Stat | Value | Rank | League | Pctl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depth of targetair yards per attempt | 7.3 | 26th of 38 | 33rd | |
| Rush EPA per game | -0.51 | 29th of 38 | 25th | |
| Success rate | 36% | 38th of 38 | 1st | |
| ANY/A | 3.79 | 35th of 38 | 9th | |
| Total EPA | -64.7 | 38th of 38 | 1st |
How this is measured
Each bar is the league at his position; the marker is him. Right is better, the dashed line is the median. Ranks are out of the qualifying pool, ties shown as T-, and move every week as the pool changes.
Herbert scores 10.0 standard points a game, QB31 of 34 QBs with enough games. Most weeks land between 8.1 and 12.2; 0 boom weeks (25+) and 5 busts (under 12). This week the Texans allow the 12th-most standard points to QBs, 18.1 a game.
Herbert scores 10.0 half-PPR points a game, QB31 of 34 QBs with enough games. Most weeks land between 8.1 and 12.2; 0 boom weeks (25+) and 5 busts (under 12). This week the Texans allow the 12th-most half-PPR points to QBs, 18.1 a game.
Herbert scores 10.0 PPR points a game, QB31 of 34 QBs with enough games. Most weeks land between 8.1 and 12.2; 0 boom weeks (25+) and 5 busts (under 12). This week the Texans allow the 12th-most PPR points to QBs, 18.1 a game.
How this is measured
Fantasy points are nflverse's standard and full-PPR scoring (6 points for a rushing or receiving touchdown, 4 for a passing touchdown, minus 2 for an interception or a lost fumble); half PPR is the average of the two. Ranks are points a game among players at his position with at least half the most games played. Most weeks is his 20th to 80th percentile game. Bars are green on a boom week and red on a bust; the dashed line is the starter line, the points a game of the QB12 in a 12-team league. The format you pick is remembered on this device.
How he's usedhis fingerprint, where the ball finds him and when
He runs when it breaks down: 9% of his dropbacks end in a scramble (league 4%). Motion is part of the plan: 61% of his dropbacks come with pre-snap movement (league 51%).
How this is measured
Every trait is a share of his own dropbacks, so volume does not move it. The marker is him among the league's qualifying quarterbacks; the dashed line is the median. Styles are not grades: a high or low percentile is a description, not a verdict. Play action, screen, RPO, motion and blitz flags come from FTN charting and read low in a week it has not published.
Herbert's -64.7 EPA is 38th of 38 quarterbacks. The biggest share comes after the catch (+92.0, 30th percentile per dropback). Interceptions cost him more than most (-49.9, 4th percentile).
career +0.10 over 2020–2025 · the lowest of his 7 seasons
How this is measured
Every dropback and run this season, split by what happened. Completions divide at the catch: the yards in the air, and his credited share of what came after (nflverse's air EPA and QB EPA). Per dropback counts scrambles as dropbacks. The percentile is him among the qualifying quarterbacks, higher is better, so a cost smaller than most ranks high. The parts add up to the totals above; the career strip counts seasons with at least 50 attempts.
He throws behind middle 2.8× as often as the league (5% of his attempts against 2%) and gains +0.25 EPA a throw there.
How this is measured
Every pass attempt with a charted depth and direction this season; sacks and throws with no charted direction are left out. Left and right are as the offense sees the field. Cells with fewer than three throws show no EPA.
On the field
By depth of target
Who he works withthe connection, and the rest of the huddle
By depth
Week by weekthe shape of his season, the game log and the defenses behind it
The game
vs TexansSoFi Stadium
HOU −4.5 · O/U 40.5
The defense vs the pass
a middle-of-the-pack matchup
His history
First meeting this season
His status
A middle-of-the-pack matchup: the Texans rank 20th vs the pass, allowing +0.07 EPA per dropback. He has averaged 204 yards a game against middle defenses this season.
| Wk | Opponent | Defense | Snap | Cmp/Att | Yds | TD | INT | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs ARI L 14-2631st D | 31st vs the pass | 100% | 17/27 | 209 | 1 | 1 | -5.6 |
| 2 | vs LV L 14-2627th D | 27th vs the pass | 100% | 15/27 | 192 | 1 | 2 | -0.6 |
| 3 | at BUF L 16-2424th D | 24th vs the pass | 100% | 20/34 | 226 | 1 | 1 | -6.4 |
| 4 | at SEA L 23-304th D | 4th vs the pass | 100% | 19/31 | 189 | 1 | 2 | -8.0 |
| 5 | vs DEN L 17-236th D | 6th vs the pass | 100% | 14/24 | 121 | 1 | 1 | -10.3 |
| 6 | at KC L 6-2213th D | 13th vs the pass | 100% | 22/37 | 204 | 1 | -14.0 | |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||||
| 8 | at LA L 9-243rd D | 3rd vs the pass | 100% | 24/32 | 257 | 2 | -16.2 | |
| 9 | vs HOUSun Nov 8 · this week | |||||||
| 10 | at BALMon Nov 16 | |||||||
| 11 | vs NYJSun Nov 22 | |||||||
| 12 | vs NESun Nov 29 | |||||||
| 13 | at TBSun Dec 6 | |||||||
| 14 | at LVSun Dec 13 | |||||||
| 15 | vs SFThu Dec 17 | |||||||
| 16 | at MIASun Dec 27 | |||||||
| 17 | vs KCSun Jan 3 | |||||||
| 18 | at DENSun Jan 10 | |||||||
| 7 games | 100% | 131/212 | 1398 | 5 | 10 | -61.1 |
| Wk | Opponent | Defense | EPA/DB | CPOE | aDOT | Sk | Sk % | Rush EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs ARI L 14-2631st D | 31st vs the pass | -0.19 | -6.2 | 10.1 | 3 | 10% | -1.1 |
| 2 | vs LV L 14-2627th D | 27th vs the pass | -0.02 | -6.3 | 10.0 | 3 | 10% | -4.1 |
| 3 | at BUF L 16-2424th D | 24th vs the pass | -0.18 | -1.0 | 8.6 | 2 | 6% | +1.6 |
| 4 | at SEA L 23-304th D | 4th vs the pass | -0.23 | -3.9 | 6.9 | 4 | 11% | +0.2 |
| 5 | vs DEN L 17-236th D | 6th vs the pass | -0.36 | -6.6 | 6.4 | 5 | 17% | -0.6 |
| 6 | at KC L 6-2213th D | 13th vs the pass | -0.34 | -9.9 | 5.4 | 4 | 10% | +1.2 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||||
| 8 | at LA L 9-243rd D | 3rd vs the pass | -0.48 | +4.3 | 4.9 | 2 | 6% | -0.8 |
| 9 | vs HOUSun Nov 8 · this week | |||||||
| 10 | at BALMon Nov 16 | |||||||
| 11 | vs NYJSun Nov 22 | |||||||
| 12 | vs NESun Nov 29 | |||||||
| 13 | at TBSun Dec 6 | |||||||
| 14 | at LVSun Dec 13 | |||||||
| 15 | vs SFThu Dec 17 | |||||||
| 16 | at MIASun Dec 27 | |||||||
| 17 | vs KCSun Jan 3 | |||||||
| 18 | at DENSun Jan 10 | |||||||
| 7 games | -0.26 | -4.2 | 7.3 | 23 | 10% | -3.6 |
| Wk | Opponent | Defense | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs ARI L 14-2631st D | 31st vs the pass | 17 | 27 | 63% | 209 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 83.7 |
| 2 | vs LV L 14-2627th D | 27th vs the pass | 15 | 27 | 56% | 192 | 7.1 | 1 | 2 | 59.5 |
| 3 | at BUF L 16-2424th D | 24th vs the pass | 20 | 34 | 59% | 226 | 6.6 | 1 | 1 | 76.3 |
| 4 | at SEA L 23-304th D | 4th vs the pass | 19 | 31 | 61% | 189 | 6.1 | 1 | 2 | 62.4 |
| 5 | vs DEN L 17-236th D | 6th vs the pass | 14 | 24 | 58% | 121 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 68.2 |
| 6 | at KC L 6-2213th D | 13th vs the pass | 22 | 37 | 59% | 204 | 5.5 | 1 | 63.3 | |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||||||
| 8 | at LA L 9-243rd D | 3rd vs the pass | 24 | 32 | 75% | 257 | 8.0 | 2 | 72.0 | |
| 9 | vs HOUSun Nov 8 · this week | |||||||||
| 10 | at BALMon Nov 16 | |||||||||
| 11 | vs NYJSun Nov 22 | |||||||||
| 12 | vs NESun Nov 29 | |||||||||
| 13 | at TBSun Dec 6 | |||||||||
| 14 | at LVSun Dec 13 | |||||||||
| 15 | vs SFThu Dec 17 | |||||||||
| 16 | at MIASun Dec 27 | |||||||||
| 17 | vs KCSun Jan 3 | |||||||||
| 18 | at DENSun Jan 10 | |||||||||
| 7 games | 131 | 212 | 62% | 1398 | 6.6 | 5 | 10 | 69.3 |
Dropbacks are steady: 34.7 a game over his last three against 33.6 for the season. At or above a starter's median in yards in 2 of 7 games. Week 8 was his season high in yards.
How this is measured
Bars are his week. The shaded band is the league's middle half at his position, every qualifying player-game this season, and the dashed line is its median. The solid line is his trailing three games. An × on the baseline is a game his team played without him; a dotted tick is the bye.
He has faced the 11th-toughest slate vs the pass: his opponents rank 15.4 of 32 on average (league middle 16.4). Ahead: 2 of his next 10 are top-10 vs the pass and 3 are bottom-10, starting with the Texans (20th) in Week 9.
The slate · played solid, ahead dashed
His line by defense faced
| Defenses | G | Att/g | Yds/g | EPA/db |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ranked 1 to 10Top-10 defenses | 3 | 29.0 | 189 | -0.35 |
| 11 to 22Middle | 1 | 37.0 | 204 | -0.34 |
| 23 to 32Bottom-10 | 3 | 29.3 | 209 | -0.13 |
| All games | 7 | 30.3 | 200 | -0.26 |
Yards against the rank of the defense
His production barely moves with the opponent (r = 0.14); it has traveled.
Careerseason by season, back to his rookie year
His best year was 2021, 5,014 passing yards in 17 games. This season's 199.7 a game puts him on pace for 3,395 over 17, short of it.
| Season | Team | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | TD | INT | Y/A | Rating | EPA/db |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | LAC | 15 | 396/595 | 67% | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 7.3 | 98.3 | +0.14 |
| 2021 | LAC | 17 | 443/672 | 66% | 5,014 | 38 | 15 | 7.5 | 97.7 | +0.17 |
| 2022 | LAC | 17 | 477/699 | 68% | 4,739 | 25 | 10 | 6.8 | 93.2 | +0.03 |
| 2023 | LAC | 13 | 297/456 | 65% | 3,134 | 20 | 7 | 6.9 | 93.2 | +0.06 |
| 2024 | LAC | 17 | 332/504 | 66% | 3,870 | 23 | 3 | 7.7 | 101.7 | +0.13 |
| 2025 | LAC | 16 | 340/512 | 66% | 3,727 | 26 | 13 | 7.3 | 94.1 | +0.03 |
| 2026 | LAC | 7 | 131/212 | 62% | 1,398 | 5 | 10 | 6.6 | 69.3 | -0.26 |
| Career | 1 tm | 102 | 2,416/3,650 | 66% | 26,218 | 168 | 68 | 7.2 | 94.8 | +0.07 |
How this is measured
Regular season only, from nflverse weekly stats back to 1999. This season is partial and drawn hollow; the pace is his per-game rate over 17 games. Bold cells are career highs.
Intel & playsthe report, his best snaps, his teammates
- Depth chart
- QB1 · 3WR 1TE
- Injury report
- clean
- Red zone touches
- …
- Third down
- …
- Explosive plays
- …
- CPOE
- -4.2 pts over expected
- Sack rate
- 10%
- Play action
- …
- Blitzed
- …
| Player | Touches | Yds | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
 Omarion HamptonRB | 102 | 372 · 3 TD | -23.9 |
 Keaton MitchellRB | 57 | 214 · 1 TD | -3.6 |
 Kimani VidalRB | 43 | 182 · 2 TD | -3.6 |
 Quentin JohnstonWR | 28 | 205 | +5.5 |
 Tre HarrisWR | 28 | 256 | +8.4 |
 Oronde Gadsden IITE | 27 | 157 · 1 TD | -8.8 |
 Ladd McConkeyWR | 24 | 286 · 1 TD | +9.3 |
 Charlie KolarTE | 17 | 98 | -15.2 |