2026
Week 1 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
vs
Commanders offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Commanders, 8 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 24–22 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 6:12, 17 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:12PHIJ.Hurts pass short middle to D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.74% → 91%
- 2Q4 10:04WASJ.Daniels pass short middle to S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.16% → 31%
- 3Q4 8:03PHIJ.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (A.Robertson).63% → 77%
- 4Q1 1:57PHIJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Wicks to WAS 6 for 64 yards (J.Reaves).62% → 74%
- 5Q2 14:17PHIJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Goedert for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.67% → 78%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Williams led the Commanders at +8.8 EPA (4 catches for 64). D.Goedert led the Eagles at +8.3 EPA (4 catches for 77).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 18/34 | 164 | 2 | 1 | +3.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt49% | 16 | 50% | 63 | 1 | +2.3 |
| R.White41% | 7 | 22% | 22 | -2.8 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 5 | 16% | 31 | +0.5 | |
| K.Allen10% | 4 | 13% | 16 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs63% | 9 | 31% | 4 | 55 | 1 | +3.8 |
| T.McLaurin87% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 14 | +2.0 | |
| A.Williams37% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 64 | 1 | +8.8 |
| J.Bates49% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 13 | -1.6 | |
| C.Okonkwo56% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 16 | +0.9 | |
| D.Brown53% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | |
| R.White41% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 5 | -1.7 | |
| J.Lane26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.8 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt49% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -7 | -1.3 |
Defense F.Luvu 1 sack, O.Oweh 1 sack, S.Styles 1 sack · Kicking D.Stevens 1/2 FG (54 no good), 1/2 XP, 4 pts
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 14/25 | 203 | 3 | 3 | +1.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley71% | 15 | 60% | 83 | -0.7 | |
| J.Hurts100% | 7 | 28% | 46 | +4.2 | |
| W.Shipley18% | 2 | 8% | 4 | -0.9 | |
| T.Bigsby11% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Smith95% | 6 | 27% | 3 | 53 | +0.8 | |
| D.Goedert95% | 5 | 23% | 4 | 77 | 2 | +8.3 |
| D.Wicks91% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 73 | 1 | +3.8 |
| M.Lemon64% | 4 | 18% | 3 | -5 | -3.9 | |
| S.Barkley71% | 2 | 9% | 1 | -3 | -1.4 | |
| W.Shipley18% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.4 |
Defense J.Campbell 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 1/1 FG, 3/3 XP, 6 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Eagles give up 184 yards a game to wide receivers (29th), against a league average of 147. Commanders' wide receivers produce 156 (13th).
Deep left is open
Eagles are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 5.9 targets a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 7.6. Commanders' tight ends produce 5.1 (28th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Commanders succeed on 41% of plays (24th) against a defense that allows 45% (23rd).
The Eagles lead the series 35–22 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the Commanders won 27–10. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Tanner McKee for the Eagles; Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | PHI 10 at WAS 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | WAS 22 at PHI 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | WAS 24 at PHI 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | PHI 29 at WAS 18 |
| 2024 · Wk 21 · playoffs | WAS 23 at PHI 55 |
2026 records
| Commanders | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–4–1 | 2–6 |
| Division | 1–2–1 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 2–3–1 | 1–5 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 2–1–1 | 1–3 |
| Away | 0–3 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | WLTLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 22.7 – 26.0 | 17.1 – 25.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#18 | +0.10#29 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#24 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#21 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#14 | 10%#21 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | +0.13#26 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.12#21 | +0.04#32 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#18 | 4.2#20 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 32%#31 | 42%#20 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 55%#21 | 60%#16 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 156#13 | 184#29 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 33#27 | 42#5 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#28 | 5.9#1 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 24#24 | 19#4 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.