2026
Week 1 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
vs
Eagles offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Eagles, 7 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 24–22 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 6:12, 17 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:12PHIJ.Hurts pass short middle to D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.74% → 91%
- 2Q4 10:04WASJ.Daniels pass short middle to S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.16% → 31%
- 3Q4 8:03PHIJ.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (A.Robertson).63% → 77%
- 4Q1 1:57PHIJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Wicks to WAS 6 for 64 yards (J.Reaves).62% → 74%
- 5Q2 14:17PHIJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Goedert for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.67% → 78%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Williams led the Commanders at +8.8 EPA (4 catches for 64). D.Goedert led the Eagles at +8.3 EPA (4 catches for 77).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 18/34 | 164 | 2 | 1 | +3.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt49% | 16 | 50% | 63 | 1 | +2.3 |
| R.White41% | 7 | 22% | 22 | -2.8 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 5 | 16% | 31 | +0.5 | |
| K.Allen10% | 4 | 13% | 16 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs63% | 9 | 31% | 4 | 55 | 1 | +3.8 |
| T.McLaurin87% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 14 | +2.0 | |
| A.Williams37% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 64 | 1 | +8.8 |
| J.Bates49% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 13 | -1.6 | |
| C.Okonkwo56% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 16 | +0.9 | |
| D.Brown53% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | |
| R.White41% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 5 | -1.7 | |
| J.Lane26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.8 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt49% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -7 | -1.3 |
Defense F.Luvu 1 sack, O.Oweh 1 sack, S.Styles 1 sack · Kicking D.Stevens 1/2 FG (long 55)
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 14/25 | 203 | 3 | 3 | +1.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley71% | 15 | 60% | 83 | -0.7 | |
| J.Hurts100% | 7 | 28% | 46 | +4.2 | |
| W.Shipley18% | 2 | 8% | 4 | -0.9 | |
| T.Bigsby11% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Smith95% | 6 | 27% | 3 | 53 | +0.8 | |
| D.Goedert95% | 5 | 23% | 4 | 77 | 2 | +8.3 |
| D.Wicks91% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 73 | 1 | +3.8 |
| M.Lemon64% | 4 | 18% | 3 | -5 | -3.9 | |
| S.Barkley71% | 2 | 9% | 1 | -3 | -1.4 | |
| W.Shipley18% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.4 |
Defense J.Campbell 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 1/1 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Eagles score a touchdown on 71% of red zone trips (4th). Commanders allow 79% (29th).
Deep right is open
Commanders are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.19 EPA per attempt. Eagles send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Eagles average 3.4 yards per carry (28th). Commanders allow 3.5 (5th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Eagles succeed on 37% of plays (30th) against a defense that allows 46% (27th).
The Eagles lead the series 35–22 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the Commanders won 27–10. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Tanner McKee for the Eagles; Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | PHI 10 at WAS 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | WAS 22 at PHI 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | WAS 24 at PHI 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | PHI 29 at WAS 18 |
| 2024 · Wk 21 · playoffs | WAS 23 at PHI 55 |
2026 records
| Commanders | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–4–1 | 2–6 |
| Division | 1–2–1 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 2–3–1 | 1–5 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 2–1–1 | 1–3 |
| Away | 0–3 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | WLTLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 22.7 – 26.0 | 17.1 – 25.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PHI off | Favors PHI · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#31 | +0.03#21 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 37%#30 | 46%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#32 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 5%#32 | 8%#8 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.14#28 | +0.02#17 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#24 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.14#24 | -0.08#16 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.4#28 | 3.5#5 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#26 | 44%#26 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 71%#4 | 79%#29 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 136#19 | 149#18 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 75#30 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.6#24 | 8.0#22 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#31 | 36#22 | 32 | |
Eagles: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.