2026
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 7 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 36–31; their low point was 35% at Q4 5:39. The game turned for good at Q4 2:34: J.Allen pass short left to D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (K.Lassiter; H.To'oTo'o). HOU-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play (48% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:41, 28 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:41BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.59% → 86%
- 2Q4 0:25BUFC.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (D.Walker).53% → 79%
- 3Q2 4:13BUFJ.Allen pass incomplete deep left to D.Moore (K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at HOU 47 -…49% → 67%
- 4Q4 0:16BUFC.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (G.Rousseau) [G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-T.Bernard at BUF 24.83% → 99%
- 5Q4 0:30HOUC.Stroud pass short right to J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).31% → 47%
- ★Q4 2:34BUFJ.Allen pass short left to D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (K.Lassiter; H.To'oTo'o). HOU-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play.turning point48% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Allen led the Bills at +12.2 EPA (20 of 29 for 334). N.Collins led the Texans at +5.8 EPA (7 catches for 75).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 20/29 | 334 | 2 | 2 | +14.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook72% | 13 | 62% | 57 | -0.1 | |
| J.Allen100% | 6 | 29% | 23 | 2 | -2.3 |
| F.Jr.19% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.1 | |
| R.Davis9% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Moore76% | 8 | 29% | 5 | 100 | 1 | +6.4 |
| K.Shakir53% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 50 | +0.6 | |
| D.Kincaid72% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 130 | +7.6 | |
| J.Cook72% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 12 | -0.4 | |
| J.Palmer31% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 34 | 1 | +4.1 |
| D.Knox67% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 | |
| K.Coleman50% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | +0.1 |
Defense G.Rousseau 2 sacks, D.Walker 1 sack · Kicking T.Bass 3/3 FG (long 46)
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 26/38 | 274 | 2 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Montgomery49% | 20 | 63% | 60 | 2 | -0.3 |
| W.Marks51% | 9 | 28% | 42 | +1.5 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 2 | 6% | 15 | +1.5 | |
| N.Collins72% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins72% | 10 | 27% | 7 | 75 | 1 | +4.9 |
| D.Schultz66% | 8 | 22% | 4 | 35 | -2.5 | |
| X.Hutchinson56% | 6 | 16% | 3 | 32 | +0.9 | |
| D.Montgomery49% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 19 | 1 | +2.6 |
| F.Moreau44% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 15 | +0.9 | |
| K.Boutte46% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 21 | +0.4 | |
| J.Noel30% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 53 | +4.0 | |
| J.Wayne32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | +0.7 | |
| C.Stover30% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -2 | -0.9 | |
| W.Marks51% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -2 | -1.4 | |
| M.Klein11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +1.1 |
Defense J.Clowney 1 sack, M.Edwards 0.5 sacks, W.Jr. 0.5 sacks · Kicking K.Fairbairn 1/1 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Bills score a touchdown on 72% of red zone trips (3rd). Texans allow 68% (24th).
Deep right is open
Texans are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Bills send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Texans give up 6.3 targets a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 7.6. Bills' tight ends produce 7.1 (19th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bills succeed on 49% of plays (4th) against a defense that allows 41% (8th).
The Texans lead the series 8–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | BUF 36 at HOU 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 | BUF 19 at HOU 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | BUF 20 at HOU 23 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | HOU 0 at BUF 40 |
| 2019 · Wk 18 · OT · playoffs | BUF 19 at HOU 22 |
2026 records
| Bills | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 2–5 |
| Division | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 3–1 | 0–4 |
| Away | 3–0 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 33.3 – 25.9 | 23.6 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#1 | +0.03#22 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#4 | 41%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#2 | 5.4#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 15%#1 | 10%#22 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#4 | +0.07#20 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 8%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#6 | -0.03#25 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#7 | 3.8#12 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#6 | 42%#19 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 72%#3 | 68%#24 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 145#17 | 196#32 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 64#9 | 46#10 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.1#19 | 6.3#5 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 46#7 | 21#6 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.