2026
Week 1 · Wednesday 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Patriots offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Patriots, 7 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 13–10 from as low as 18% (Q4 15:00, down 10–3). The game turned for good at Q4 0:26: D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback (37% → 94%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:26SEAD.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.turning point37% → 94%
- 2Q4 11:38SEAD.Lock pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21% → 49%
- 3Q4 2:00NED.Maye pass short right to M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (E.Jones).24% → 48%
- 4Q4 0:38SEAD.Maye sacked at SEA 28 for -7 yards (D.Hall).33% → 51%
- 5Q4 1:30NER.Stevenson up the middle to SEA 28 for 8 yards (D.Hall; D.Witherspoon).48% → 62%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Hollins led the Patriots at +2.8 EPA (4 catches for 51). D.Lock led the Seahawks at +8.2 EPA (16 of 22 for 187).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 23/33 | 178 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson85% | 18 | 58% | 51 | -8.1 | |
| D.Maye100% | 7 | 23% | 47 | +7.3 | |
| C.Kiner11% | 6 | 19% | 11 | -2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Douglas62% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 20 | +0.5 | |
| R.Stevenson85% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 44 | -0.1 | |
| M.Hollins70% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 51 | +2.8 | |
| A.Brown44% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 26 | +1.3 | |
| H.Henry76% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 26 | +0.1 | |
| R.Doubs56% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | |
| L.Larison4% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 9 | +0.1 | |
| E.Raridon54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +0.8 |
Defense D.Jones 1 sack, G.Jacas 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 50)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Lock90% | 16/22 | 187 | 1 | 1 | +6.4 | |
| S.Darnold10% | 1/2 | 13 | 1 | -2.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Price48% | 10 | 45% | 52 | +1.0 | |
| G.Holani46% | 8 | 36% | 29 | -2.2 | |
| D.Lock90% | 2 | 9% | 13 | +1.7 | |
| E.Wilson6% | 2 | 9% | 3 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba90% | 11 | 46% | 8 | 122 | 1 | +7.7 |
| C.Kupp78% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 35 | +1.7 | |
| R.Shaheed66% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 4 | -2.9 | |
| B.Russell34% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 20 | +1.1 | |
| A.Barner88% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| J.Price48% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 6 | -0.7 | |
| G.Holani46% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
Defense J.Love 1 INT, J.Jobe 1 INT, N.Pritchett 1 INT, L.Williams 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/2 FG (long 30)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Patriots score a touchdown on 52% of red zone trips (26th). Seahawks allow 85% (32nd).
Short left is open
Seahawks are worst against short left throws, allowing +0.14 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 32% of their throws there.
Nowhere to run
Patriots' run game is 23rd in EPA per carry (-0.14). Seahawks allow -0.18 (3rd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Patriots gain 6.1 yards per play (4th). Seahawks give up 4.1 (1st), with the league at 5.4.
The Seahawks lead the series 6–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | NE 10 at SEA 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 22 · playoffs | SEA 29 at NE 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 · OT | SEA 23 at NE 20 |
| 2020 · Wk 2 | NE 30 at SEA 35 |
| 2016 · Wk 10 | SEA 31 at NE 24 |
2026 records
| Patriots | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 4–3 |
| Division | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 1–2 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 3–1 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWLLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 20.3 | 24.0 – 17.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | -0.13#3 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 4.1#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#8 | 5%#2 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.15#8 | -0.14#3 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 7%#12 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.14#23 | -0.18#3 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#20 | 3.3#1 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#11 | 32%#4 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#26 | 85%#32 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#11 | 92#1 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#10 | 34#2 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.8#22 | 6.6#8 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#12 | 32#15 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.